HEADLINES
– Not as cloudy, not as cold today.
– Southwest winds gusting at 30 to 35 mph this afternoon and evening.
– Small threat of showers overnight tonight.
– More widespread rain for Sunday.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
As has been the case in recent days and weeks...the primary focus for today into this evening will be the wind with a gusty afternoon developing again as the pressure gradient tightens up with a cold front moving into the upper Midwest and eventually into the region by tonight with a few showers. The surface ridge axis is directly overhead and as that moves east in the predawn hours...should see a subtle gradient develop with light southwest flow. This may lead to temps rising back up a couple degrees prior to daybreak from current readings. Winds will pick up quickly by late morning in response to the tightening pressure gradient and increase this afternoon as the boundary layer becomes well mixed in the dry airmass. The strongest gusts will be focused over the northwest half of the forecast area in closest proximity to the low level jet positioned over the mid Mississippi Valley. Gusts may peak briefly late day as the boundary layer flow strengthens and the mixing layer rises into the 750-700mb. The potential exists for a few gusts to approach 40mph over the northern Wabash Valley. Elsewhere expect peak gusts in the 30-35mph range during the mid and late afternoon. Despite the development of the nocturnal inversion in the near surface layer this evening...sounding profiles maintain dry adiabatic flow above the inversion through 750-700mb which will aid momentum transfer to the surface and keep gusts healthy all evening as the low level jet pivots into the region from the west. Mid and high level clouds will be on the increase by late day and continue tonight as the front approaches. A few showers will move across the northern half of the forecast area late evening into the predawn hours Saturday aided primarily by subtle isentropic lift immediately ahead of the front. Most of the forcing aloft will remain well to the north as low pressure tracks into western Quebec. Moisture also remains paltry and at least initially confined primarily to the mid levels which will limit shower coverage to widely scattered at best. It should be noted based on the model soundings that the showers may be able to pull slightly stronger winds to the surface for a brief period as they pass late this evening with an abundance of dry air present below 700mb prior to gradual moistening of the column. Any showers will move east of the forecast area prior to daybreak Saturday with clouds diminishing as well from the west. Temps...the onset of warm advection and a gusty southwest wind will enable a nice recovery in temperatures from Thursday, Low level thermals support mid to upper 50s across central Indiana. Temperatures should remain in the 40s over the region for much of the night but will slip back into the mid and upper 30s north of I- 70 once the front passes in the predawn hours. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Near normal conditions for mid to late March expected over the next week with periodic chances for rain. This weekend... The period begins with mainly dry weather Saturday with high pressure overhead and near normal highs in the low to mid 50s. Focus this weekend will be on Sunday as an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary bring widespread rain to the region. An occluded front extends southeastward from a moving through the Northern Plains on Sunday. Latest guidance triple point and warm front setting up right over Central Indiana with a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet pumping moisture northward into the region. Expect rain to develop from the west/southwest and move into Central Indiana during the early morning hours Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest the possibility of a a brief mix of rain and snow on the leading edge due to wet bulb cooling and such dry antecedent conditions. P-type will quickly transition to plain rain, so do not expect any issues from snow mixing in. Models are showing enough elevated instability to produce some isolated thunder; however will keep this out of the forecast for now until this system can be better viewed by hi-res CAMs. There also looks to be some decent shear and tight gradient that will produce breezy conditions, but all other severe parameters are expected to remain minuscule for central Indiana with the severe threat further south of the state for Sunday. Next Week... A general northwest flow pattern sets up for the Great Lakes region Monday through Thursday, keeping near normal temperatures around and periodic chances for light precipitation due to weak passing systems. While Monday looks mainly dry and breezy, the next chance for rain arrives Tuesday as a weak upper level disturbance drops southeastward from Canada. Overall light rain expected are possible from this system. Since this is a few days out, timing and track of the subtle feature could easily change, so keeping PoPs only at chance wording for now. Will increase PoPs accordingly once track and timing of this system are more solidified. A slow warm up takes place the middle and latter half of next week as the pattern begins to shift toward a set up more favorable for much warmer, above average conditions. The northwest flow pattern transitions into ridging with the main storm track pushing further north as well. Do have low PoPs late week as guidance is showing a system and front likely moving through; however confidence is higher that Indiana will be on the warmer side of things by then.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. High 57.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A few overnight showers. Low 40.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 50.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low 35.
Sunday: Clouds increase. Periods of rain. Rain could start with a brief rain/snow mix. High 51.
Sunday Night: Rainy. Low 39.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 52.
Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 54.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 34.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 56.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 36.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Shower chances. High 58.
Never miss me! Subscribe for free. My Huge Radar has real-time weather tracking, current temperatures, and severe weather watches and warnings. Get detailed Indiana conditions by clicking here. Click here to see my central Indiana 7-Day Forecast. Follow these links to get my forecasts for Lafayette, Muncie, Hendricks County, and Hamilton County. Need a second opinion? Click here for central Indiana National Weather Service forecasts. (Some charts via WeatherBELL.)
