299 FXUS63 KIND 200306 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1106 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today with gusts 35 to 45 mph, Wind Advisory in effect until 9pm. - Numerous T-storms later this afternoon and evening, with a few severe storms possible. Damaging winds are the primary threat, though isolated tornadoes and severe hail are also possible. - Becoming cooler, with rain and snow showers Thursday morning. - More showers are expected at times this weekend and next week as temperatures hover mostly around normal. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1103 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Active evening of strong and severe thunderstorms is winding down across central Indiana...although cold front currently crossing region from west to east has been bringing down some briefly strong to isolated severe gusts which are still possible over eastern zones through 530Z. Temperatures displaying staunch drop with boundary with upper 40s now entering far western portions of area. Lower ceilings towards pre-dawn hours will accompany arrival of mainly scattered rain to snow showers from Northwest to southeast. Winds should drop off slightly with gusts expected to stay mainly under 25-30KT through 12Z Thursday morning. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 457 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The atmosphere out ahead of the approaching low in continuing to develop parameters conducive to organized convective cells this afternoon. This had led to widespread thunderstorm initiation over central IL. Initially, the thought was the dry mid level air would inhibit initial updraft growth leading to more of a discrete convective mode, but observational analysis is showing very little limitations with a the beginning formation of a QLCS. This is expected to continue the surge of moisture pushes into central Indiana over the next few hours. VWP observations show low level veering quickly increasing as the LLJ strengthens. This is aligning with the more aggressive CAMs like the HRRR and FV3. This could allow for the more discrete cells out in front of the main QLCS to become organized including the potential for organized mesocyclones. These more discrete cells within the drier mid-levels would also have the best chance of producing severe hail. The hail threat is likely to diminish some as the QLCS arrives. As far as the QLCS, the bulk shear vector will be best aligned for segments that are oriented slights west of north, and these segments will be the most likely to produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Overall storm motion will generally be around 230 degrees at about 50kt. This will become more westerly with time and as the cold pool strengthens. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Current surface analysis and satellite observations show a strong surface low centered near northwest Missouri with thunderstorms developing ahead of an advancing cold front across Illinois. This front will continue to push eastward towards central Indiana during the afternoon. Moisture advection combined with additional diurnal heating supports the development of numerous thunderstorms around the 5-7pm timeframe. Severe storms are possible as strong deep-layer wind shear and modest instability favor supercells capable of all hazards. A Tornado Watch is in effect across west-central Indiana through 10pm. The greatest threats later this afternoon and into the evening are damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, especially across west-central Indiana. Forecast soundings show slightly backed surface flow beneath a strong southwesterly LLJ promoting veering low-level hodographs. This setup will lead to strong SRH around 200-300 (m^2/s^2) favoring supercells and an increasing tornado threat. Steep 0-3km lapse rates along with organized rotating updrafts also favors the potential for damaging wind gusts. The hail threat is somewhat limited due to modest instability, but severe hail is still possible with any organized storms. The severe weather threat tapers off early tonight once the aforementioned front shifts east. PBL mixing into a strong LLJ overhead will continue to produce strong wind gusts through this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9pm for the potential of southerly wind gusts up to 45 mph. Isolated higher non-thunderstorm wind gusts cannot be completely ruled out. Despite PBL stabilization overnight, winds remain elevated into Thursday with a strong pressure gradient in place. A lull in precipitation is expected tonight due to dry air filtering in behind the front. However, rain quickly returns late tonight as moisture wraps around the surface low. Model guidance suggest precipitation remains mostly confined to areas near or north of I-70 where stronger low-level convergence should be. Colder air advection on the backside of the low will likely allow light snow to mix in. No accumulations are expected due to warm ground temperatures. Isolated lake enhanced rain or snow showers may then continue through the early afternoon hours before quiet weather conditions return. Highs ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s combined with breezy conditions will make it feel more like Winter on Thursday. && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The long term period will see steadier and nearer to normal temperatures than we've had the last could of weeks. This will be paired with a couple of upper waves moving through that will bring multiple chances of precipitation through next week. Temperatures are forecasted to be pretty consistent through the period with highs in the 50s each day and lows in the 30s. The coldest night of the period will be Thursday morning with lows below freezing. The first round of precipitation will be Friday night, due an upper wave extending south into the region. Central Indiana will have minimal moisture and lift to work with while better precipitation chances will be to the north. Likely only the northern half of the forecast area will see light rain from this system, but at this time confidence isn't high so have kept PoPs at slight chance and chance. Saturday will be quiet and dry as a quick upper ridge passes over the region. The next system will be an upper low tracking across the Great Lakes, coming from the northern Plains. This system will see greater moisture than the previous one as models show a line of showers and potentially thunderstorms to track across the eastern U.S. and prompting PoPs from Sunday morning through Monday. At this time, not seeing indicators of severe weather for central Indiana but breezy non-thunderstorm winds with gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected especially for Monday... SPC shows that there could be some day 5 severe down in the ArkLaTex/Mississippi region so will continue to monitor should the risk expand northward. Finally, another weaker system could bring additional rain chances mid-next week. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Impacts: - Strong wind gusts to 25-35KT into this evening...with isolated, embedded higher gusts possible in few strong/severe TSRA thru 02Z - MVFR CIGs possible in/near stronger cells through 02Z...with widespread MVFR CIG returning 08-09Z late tonight - Winds veering slowly to SW this evening...and quickly to NW pre- dawn Thursday - LLWS at KLAF/KHUF through 02Z this evening Discussion: Gusty southerly gradient winds gusting to 25-35KT early this evening, courtesy of a strong low-level jet...will wane slightly through the early evening while veering to southwesterly...with gusts to 20-25KT from 04Z through dawn Thursday. Higher gusts in a few strong/severe storms tracking from southwest to northeast through 02Z will be an isolated yet locally more potent hazard, with gusts briefly to 55KT and small hail possible near terminals at times. VFR this evening will drop to MVFR and possibly brief IFR in stronger convection...before widespread MVFR returns from NW to SE around 08-09Z late tonight amid mainly scattered rain/snow showers. MVFR CIGs Thursday...should lift back to low-VFR during 19-22Z from west to east...before scattering out. Northwest winds Thursday will increase slightly through the morning despite cloudy skies...with sustained winds at 15-17KT at most TAF sites through the majority of the daytime...and gusts as high as 24- 30KT. Northwest winds at KIND should diminish to under 7KT by late Thursday evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM SHORT TERM...Melo LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...AGM
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503200306-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND
Warnings always on My Huge Radar!
Never miss me! Subscribe for free. My Huge Radar has real-time weather tracking, current temperatures, and severe weather watches and warnings. Get detailed Indiana conditions by clicking here. Click here to see my central Indiana 7-Day Forecast. Follow these links to get my forecasts for Lafayette, Muncie, Hendricks County, and Hamilton County. Need a second opinion? Click here for central Indiana National Weather Service forecasts. (Some charts via WeatherBELL.)
