…Dangerous severe weather outbreak expected across Mississippi Valley
and Lower Ohio Valley on Friday; severe weather outbreak likely in the
Mid-South on Saturday…
…Storm system brings unsettled weather to the West…
…Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of the Southern Plains for the
rest of the week…
…Warm temperatures across the Central and Eastern U.S….
A powerful upper level trough traversing the West today will be
responsible for producing a plethora of weather hazards through the end of
the week and into the upcoming weekend. Through tonight, heavy mountain
snow and strong wind gusts are expected throughout the Rockies and as far
west as the Sierra Nevada. Over a foot of snowfall is forecast through
Friday morning in the central and southern Rockies, while peak wind gusts
in parts of the Southwest range between 40-70 mph. The storm system then
reaches the Great Plains on Friday with barometric pressure values
deepening to near-record lows for March. The weather hazard with the
biggest footprint of impacts is the wind field. Wind gusts exceeding 50
mph are forecast from the Rockies and Great Plains to as far east as the
western Great Lakes through Saturday afternoon. On the northern side of
the storm track Friday night, a wintry mix transitioning to periods of
snow will envelope the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota that will linger
through Saturday afternoon. Combined with the strong wind gusts associated
with the storm, there is the potential for blizzard conditions that result
in dangerous travel.
On the warm side of this storm, several more weather hazards are
anticipated both Friday and Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Friday with all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, large
hail) on the table. In fact, the Slight Risk area (level 2/5) stretches
from just south of of the Twin Cities to just north of the central Gulf
Coast. By Saturday, the severe weather threat heads east to the Ohio
Valley on south to the Gulf Coast. SPC has yet another Moderate Risk
(level 4/5) in the heart of the Mid-South with a Slight Risk area (level
2/5) that reaches as far north as Ohio’s northeastern coast of Lake Erie.
Intense storms from Louisiana to the Tennessee Valley would be capable of
producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. Expect these
storms to be fast movers, making it essential to take action when warnings
are issued and to not wait to see or hear the signs of a severe storm.
There is also a threat for flash flooding in parts of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys on Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (threat level 2/4) for these regions on
Saturday. Plus, SPC has an expansive Critical Risk for their Fire Weather
Outlook on Friday for most of the Southern Plains, with an Extreme Risk
located from northern Texas and central Oklahoma to southern Kansas. Look
for potentially critical fire weather conditions to continue in western
and southern Texas on Saturday.
This weather pattern will also produce a strong temperature contrast from
the West to the East Coast. With troughing aloft continuing over the West
into Saturday (more rain and mountain snow expected in the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday), temperatures will be colder than normal from the
West Coast to the Front Range of the Rockies through Saturday. Meanwhile,
a strong spring-like surge of warmth will engulf much of the eastern U.S..
High temperature anomalies of 20-30 degrees above normal are forecast in
the Midwest and Great Lakes on Friday with some areas seeing record
breaking high temps. As far south as South Texas, daytime highs will be
more summer-like with highs approaching the century mark. Spring-like
warmth will be common east of the Mississippi River on Saturday with
numerous record warm minimum temperatures and daytime highs anywhere from
10-20 degrees above normal.
Mullinax
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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