HEADLINES
– Rain/freezing rain arrives in Indy Metro counties after about 5pm. Earlier south, later north.
– Minor ice accumulations possible Lafayette to Muncie, mainly on elevated surfaces.
– More precipitation Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. Could begin with a wintry mix.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over the upper midwest, with a ridge axis extending southeast across MI to PA and the middle Atlantic states. This was resulting in dry easterly flow across central Indiana. GOES16 shows an abundance of cloud cover across central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor shows weak ridging in place over the plains states, with a plume of moisture over the plains streaming into the the Ohio Valley and points east. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Today and Tonight - After a relatively quiet morning and early afternoon, active weather is poised to arrive late this afternoon and into the evening. As we start the day, the ridging aloft over the plains will push across Central Indiana, continuing to provide a stream of mid and high clouds across the area. No significant forcing is expected through early afternoon and this will result in dry weather through that time. However across KY and TN a warm front will be setting up, and this will be a feature that helps bring precipitation to Indiana tonight. Thus in the meantime, we will expect just mostly cloudy skies and easterly winds. Temperatures will rise into the at least the lower 30s north, with mid and upper 30s more prevalent central and south. Late this afternoon and evening, the upper ridge is expected to depart to the east as a short wave within the flow aloft arrives over the plains and begins to push toward Indiana. This will provide ample forcing for precipitation late this afternoon and evening. Through the evening, the warm front to the south will be a focus for lower level convergence along with isentropic lift. The 295K isentropic surface shows good lift with specific humidities greater than 6 g/kg. Forecast soundings late this afternoon and tonight show a saturated column, suggestive of an overrunning type pattern, Thus overall confidence for precipitation is quite high. Thus high pops, particularly this evening, will be used. However a few caveats remain. Forecast soundings are suggestive of a freezing rain profile, and surface temperatures, mainly across the northern parts of the forecast area, may be near freezing at precipitation onset. Several models suggest above freezing temps at that time, while a few outliers do not. Thus confidence for freezing precipitation is low, but it cannot be ruled out. Some elevated areas, where temperatures may be more likely to be slightly colder, may have a better favor-ability for this. Thus will plan on keeping a few hours of freezing rain mention across northern parts of Central Indiana late this afternoon and early evening. Any icing that should occur will be quite limited along with impacts. As the evening progresses, warm air advection is expected to continue as the warm front to the south nudges northward. Here models suggest that temperatures across Central Indiana will rise into the middle and upper 30s by mid evening, ending the freezing rain threat. Thereafter, any precipitation will should mainly just be rain and any icing that occurred should also melt. Road temperatures across Central Indiana are in the middle 30s early this morning also. Models suggest the forcing and associated short wave pushing east of Indiana after 09Z tonight. After that precipitation is expected to end, leading to just cloudy skies. At that point, pops will be ramped down. Warm air advection through the night suggests steady or slowly rising temperatures with values in the mid to upper 30s north to around 40 south in a non-diurnal fashion. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 317 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 The long term period will see a cool down as an expansive trough steadily sets up aloft this weekend and next week. Thursday could start off with lingering light precipitation before tapering off from NW to SE once surface high pressure builds in behind the exiting system. Forecast soundings show a shallow saturated layer which could support light rain, but there is a noticeable subsidence inversion developing due to increasing large scale subsidence. This along with weak forcing limits confidence on how long precipitation lingers Thursday or how widespread it will be. After a quiet weather day Friday, a quick moving low pressure system is set to move over central Indiana, bringing good confidence in additional precipitation throughout the day Saturday. This precip will potentially start off as snow or a rain snow mix, especially across the northern half of the forecast area where below freezing temperatures will be probable, before changing to all rain by the afternoon as the associated warm front pushes through. Rain is expected to end late in the day Saturday and may finish off with additional snow mixing in as the cold front takes over. Should there be any snow accumulation, it is expected to be minimal. Behind this Saturday system, near normal temperatures will settle in for the first couple of days of the new week. Another surface low could bring more precipitation to the area but variances in where the low will track leads to a lack of confidence in PoPs next week. Keeping with guidance on PoPs for now due to the uncertainty, but there is a possibility that the band of moisture could stay south of the forecast area. However, there is higher confidence in even cooler temperatures behind this system for central Indiana, with slightly below normal temps expected for the end of the forecast period.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly cloudy to overcast. Rain or freezing rain chance after about 5pm. High 37.
Tonight: Rain, mixing with freezing rain at first. Rumbles of thunder possible as temps rise overnight. Low 33.
Thursday: Early morning showers. Clouds decrease. High 45.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 27.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 38.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 30.
Saturday: Mainly afternoon rain. Could start with a brief wintry mix. High 48.
Saturday Night: Evening rain. Mostly cloudy. Low 29.
Sunday: Mostly to partly cloudy. High 37.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 24.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 38.
Monday Night: Cloudy, with snow showers late. Low 27.
Tuesday: Snow showers, with light accumulations. High 35.

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