HEADLINES
– More than 25 degrees colder today.
– Rain, freezing rain, and thunder all possible Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
– More possibly mixed precipitation Saturday morning.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
852 FXUS63 KIND 041153 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front stretching across southern OH and southern Indiana. Surface flow across Central Indiana has become northerly in the wake of the front. Looking farther upstream, strong high pressure was in place over the northern plains states. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows ridging in place over the Rockies with lee side northwest flow streaming from the northern plains to Appalachia. This pattern is suggestive of ongoing subsidence across the the plains into the Ohio Valley. GOES16 showed abundant cloud cover across Central Indiana in the wake of the cold front. Today - Dry and colder weather is expected today. Models suggest the cold front will continue to push rapidly southward as the strong high pressure system to the northwest rapidly builds southeast into Indiana. Subsidence is expected to remain in place aloft as the ridging over the Rockies makes progress east, but keeps lee side flow with no forcing dynamics in place streaming over Indiana. Time heights and forecast soundings trend toward a dry column as this occurs. Morning cloudiness across the area should continue a slow dissipation as heating and mixing increases. Cold air advection is in play today along with continued north winds through the day. It will feel much colder as highs will reach only the middle to upper 30s, nearly 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. Tonight - Overall little change is expected in the weather tonight, however there will be hints of the progression as clouds should increase overnight. Models show the ridging aloft to the west of Indiana making progress east toward Indiana through the night. Meanwhile at the surface, the large high pressure system northwest of Indiana will remain in control of our weather as it moves east across the Great Lakes. This will result in easterly lower level flow as southerly flow develops within the mid levels on the backside of passing mid level ridge. Forecast soundings and time height suggest that the weak lift involved with this will lead to cloud development toward daybreak. Deep moisture and strong forcing remains unavailable, thus precipitation will not be expected, however increasing lower level clouds as the night progresses is expected. Thus increasing cloudiness. The weak warm air advection and advancing clouds through the night show allow for low temperatures to fall to the middle 20s north to around 30 south. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 323 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 The long term period will start off with the return of precipitation as a warm front pushes northward across central Indiana. The precip will most likely move in from the south midday into the afternoon. Models continue to trend towards a slower arrival of rain as the atmosphere takes it time to saturate. Thunderstorms will also be possible during the afternoon to overnight hours. Just ahead of the warm front, model soundings are showing a stout warm nose aloft, which could lead to the formation of freezing rain along the leading edge of the precip. Confidence on the freezing rain remains lows at this time as it will require both freezing temperatures at the surface and saturation of the column to align. Additional limiting factors include a warm ground in place as and the light nature of the initial precip. The threat for freezing precip is mainly across the northern half of the forecast area and at this time minimal ice accumulation is expected should it end up forming. As the front continues to push northward and the associated surface low approaches, rain chances will increase, leading to likely PoPs from Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday while the high temperature Wednesday will be during the overnight hours. Half an inch to around an inch of QPF is expected with this system before rain comes to an end behind the passing cold front by the latter part of Thursday. Surface high pressure will bring a break in precipitation for the end of the week and a return to nearer to normal temperatures the remainder of the forecast period. Another surface low will move through the region this weekend bring additional precipitation, this time looking to be a mix of rain and snow, for the weekend.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Some sunshine. Much cooler! High 40.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low 27.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Freezing rain and rain possible by late afternoon. High 37.
Wednesday Night: Freezing rain and rain. Rumbles of thunder possible as temps climb into the 40s overnight.
Thursday: Early morning showers. Clouds decrease. High 53.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 26.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 39.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Rain and a wintry mix possible after midnight. Low 30.
Saturday: Wintry mix to rain. High 46.
Saturday Night: Evening rain. Mostly cloudy. Low 26.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 40.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 22.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 35.





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