HEADLINES
– Warmest day of the year today! Highs around 60.
– Lots of clouds and 25 mph gusts this afternoon.
– Up and down temps. Cold front tonight leads to 40s tomorrow.
– Rain Wednesday afternoon/evening, and again Saturday.
– Wild cards: rain could mix with freezing rain Wednesday afternoon, and again Saturday morning.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure over Ontario with a cold front extending southwest across WI to IA and NB. Strong high pressure was found east of the east coast. These two features were resulting in a warm and southeasterly flow across Central Indiana. GOES16 shows a steady stream of mid and high clouds within a nearly zonal flow in place aloft. This flow stretched from the inter mountain west across the plains states to Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Weak surface flow across parts of the forecast area has led to some patchy fog development as dew point depressions have fallen close to to saturation. Today - Models show the quick, nearly zonal flow remaining in place today across Central Indiana. The steady stream of mid and high clouds associated with this will remain with us through the day. Meanwhile the cold front over WI will slowly sag toward Indiana, but will not pass across the state until tonight. This results in a full day within the warm sector ahead of this front. A thermal ridge is noted to develop over Indiana ahead of the front as the day progresses, with warm air advection ongoing through the day. Forecast soundings through the day gradually show CU development with an overcast CU deck developing by late afternoon as convective temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 are reached. A steep inversion aloft, above the saturation will prevent any deep growth. Still, high clouds this morning with lower cloud development this afternoon should lead to a mostly cloudy day. Temperatures will become well above normal within the warm sector ahead of the front. A moderate pressure gradient is also expected as the front approaches leading to some gusty winds and ample mixing. This will aid temperatures to reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tonight - The zonal flow aloft is expected to become more northwesterly as weak ridging builds across the western Plains states. This will aid the cold front to push southward across Indiana through the evening hours before reaching KY on early Tuesday morning. Models show lower level flow becoming northwesterly with the onset of cold air advection during the evening. Prior to the front passing and during the evening and overnight hours forecast soundings fail to show deep saturation, but do keep lower level saturation in place suggesting trapped cold air advection with a steep inversion in place aloft. Thus we will expect a mostly cloudy and colder night with lows in the upper 20s north to mid 30s south. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 336 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025 The first part of the forecast period will see variable temperatures as multiple fronts pass through while precipitation moves in Wednesday. Temps will become more stable for the latter part of the forecast with additional chances for precip. Midweek is problematic forecast as a rain producing system will track across the region within general fast zonal flow. While models are coming to a better consensus for this timeframe, there is still uncertainty with the timing of temperatures thanks to a back and forth on fronts. Tuesday will be much cooler in comparison to today, behind a cold front. Despite this, Hi-Res soundings are supportive of a decent amount of sunshine with perhaps just some mid and high clouds within the fast zonal flow aloft and under the influence of broad surface high pressure nosing in from the northwest. A surface low pressure system will then move through Indiana, bringing much of the temperature uncertainty. The associated warm front will bring increasing warmth through the day Wednesday, but models continue to agree that the high for the day will actually be Wednesday night. Gulf moisture will lift over the warm front, bringing precipitation from the south beginning early Wednesday. Soundings show a strong warm nose aloft, so if precip starts while temperatures remain freezing at the surface, freezing rain or sleet will be possible at the start of this event. Confidence is low in regards to freezing precip at this time, but something to keep a close eye on as things become clearer. The low itself should then pass early Thursday with the cold front lingering over the forecast area into the day Thursday before colder temps settle back in for the end of the week. Rain will continue through the day Thursday as well before the cold front passes to the south and surface high pressure takes precedence. The remainder of the forecast will see near to slightly above normal temps. Another quick system is expected bring additional rain over the weekend with best chances for the latter part of Saturday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 652 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025 Impacts: - Wind gusts this afternoon to evening up to 25 kts - Patchy fog possible at KLAF first hour of TAF period - MVFR cigs expected by this evening Discussion: Mid to high clouds ongoing over TAF sites. Some patchy fog has developed at LAF but should dissipate after sunrise. Heating and mixing returns today, as a moderate pressure gradient develops across Central Indiana ahead of an approaching cold front. This will result in gusty winds during the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Furthermore by late afternoon, forecast soundings begin trending toward an inverted V configuration, suggesting the development of CU as convective temps near 60 are reached. MVFR cigs are suggested to develop this evening as the cold front approaches from the northwest. At that time, forecast soundings and time heights show saturation within the lower levels.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Patchy morning fog. Mostly to partly cloudy. High 63.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Few stray showers possible in the evening. Low 33.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 43.
Tuesday Night: Clouds increase. Low 31.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Mainly afternoon rain. Rain could mix with some freezing rain at times. High 39.
Wednesday Night: Showers. Rumbles of thunder possible as temps climb to near 50 overnight.
Thursday: Early morning showers. Clouds decrease. High 47.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 25.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 38.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Rain after midnight, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low 29.
Saturday: Periods of rain. High 45.
Saturday Night: Evening rain. Mostly cloudy. Low 30.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 38.

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