HEADLINES
– Clouds and temps increase today.
– Warmest Monday, with highs in the 60s.
– Rain Wednesday. (Maybe starting with a wintry mix?)
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure centered over the St. Lawrence Valley, dominating the weather across the east coast and into the deep south. Low pressure was found over the northern plains states. This was resulting in cyclonic flow across the plains. The two systems together were producing a southerly and warm flow of air into the the Ohio Valley and central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor showed a weak wavy pattern with a weak ridge in place over the Rockies, a weak trough over the plains and a weak ridge over the Great Lakes. Plentiful Pacific moisture was found within the flow aloft, streaming across the CONUS as mainly high clouds. Upstream of Indiana, over Western KY and western IL, lower clouds were found. Temperatures were in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Today - The upper flow across the area is expected to become nearly zonal as the weak trough aloft quickly moves across the state through day. Limited deep moisture remains present with this wave and precip was limited to isolated showers over southern WI. Within the lower levels, a weak trough will also pass through the day, but westerly flow will continue to persist with ongoing warm air advection. The previously mentioned surface low over the northern plains is expected to make only easterly progress, keeping Indiana in a warm air advection regime through the day, with little moisture present. Forecast soundings and time heights show the arrival of lower level moisture today as lower clouds over KY and IL, advecting northeast across Indiana. Furthermore, the steady stream of moisture will remain in place within the quick flow aloft. All of this will add up to a mostly cloudy day with warmer temperatures due to the warm air advection. Expect highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Tonight - Models suggest that tonight zonal flow will remain in place over the region with no forcing dynamics present within the quick flow aloft. Surface low pressure is expected to push across Ontario, dragging a cold front across the upper Midwest. However this will not impact Central Indiana as we will remain in the warm sector ahead of the front tonight with ongoing southerly flow in place. Forecast soundings continue to show plentiful dry air within the lower levels, but saturation aloft. That saturation is indicative of the steady stream of high cloud within the zonal flow aloft. Thus will trend toward a mostly cloudy sky again tonight. Low temperatures should be warmer given the clouds and warm air advection, with values in the upper 30s and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 327 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025 The long term period looks to have a fluctuation of temperatures as multiple fronts move through as well as a few chances for precipitation. WAA will start out the week with highs Monday well above normal, now expecting to see 60s for much of the forecast area. These should quickly cool off again as a cold front moves through early in the day Tuesday. This cold front will be associated with a low tracking across Canada and while there won`t be enough moisture with it over central Indiana, there will be a moistening of the column through the day. Another surface low impacting the region will quickly follow, this time tracking from the central plains into the Great Lakes region. Ahead of the low will advect ample moisture from the Gulf while the associated warm front lifts northward through the forecast area. Rain will move in from the south and may enter as early as before daybreak Wednesday. Enough instability is expected by the afternoon and evening to potentially see embedded thunderstorms. Models continue to show the warm front itself passing through late Wednesday, making the high of the day most likely to occur during the overnight hours. Made some adjustments to guidance to account for the timing of the high. However, the cold front should also quickly follow Thursday, returning nearer to normal temps Thursday night into Friday. With all that said for the midweek forecast, it should be noted that confidence on exact temperatures is lower than usual as they will depend greatly on the exact timing and location of the fronts as they pass through. A surface high will take charge at the end of the week, bringing a break in PoPs before additional chances return for the weekend due to another system modeled to impact the region. There is some variability at this time whether that will track closer to the Great Lakes or closer to the Tennessee or Ohio Valleys.

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