HEADLINES
– Partly sunny and not as warm today.
– More clouds tonight through Monday.
– High temps mostly in 40s & 50s through next week.
– Showers and even storms possible Wednesday.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure in place over western Ontario, pushing into the Great Lakes. Another area of high pressure was found over TX, with a ridge axis connecting the two systems. This was resulting in dry weather across the plains as it was building across the Ohio valley. The high was also resulting in cooler northerly surface flow to central Indiana. Clouds associated with the departing upper trough were pushing south across Central Indiana and should complete exiting the forecast area within the next 1-2 hours. Looking aloft, water vapor showed broad but weak ridging in place across the Rockies with lee side northwesterly flow streaming across the upper Midwest. This was resulting in subsidence across Central Indiana. Temperatures across the area had fallen into the 30s. Today - The weak ridging in place aloft that was over the Rockies is expected to drift farther east today, across Central Indiana. This will allow for continued subsidence across Central Indiana through the day. Meanwhile the large surface high pressure system over Ontario is expected to drift to the eastern Great Lakes by the end of the afternoon. This will result in a gradual shift in surface winds from the north to the east through the course of the day. Forecast soundings and time heights fail to show any saturation through the day and continue to suggest subsidence. Models show lower level moisture fields as remaining dry today, and even with the eventual easterly flow, models suggest that lower level clouds should not return. Thus a mostly sunny day will be expected. Ongoing cold air advection will be in play today. This along with forecast soundings suggesting an inversion aloft will lead to cooler high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Tonight - The previously mentioned upper ridge will depart to the east, allowing for the development of of a weak short wave trough within the flow to arrive across the Great Lake and Indiana. This wave will have little moisture to work with as the dry easterly flow in place across Central Indiana. In the lower levels the strong surface high is expected to depart to the east tonight as stronger low pressure moves through the northern plains. This will allow the arrival of some warm air advection. This along with the arrival of upper level trough may allow the return of some clouds after midnight. Forecast soundings and time heights tonight show the arrival of lower level moisture, with lift in place aloft. Overall though, the column remains dry. Thus will trend towards increasing cloudiness tonight. With the expected clouds and warm air advection, look for lows in the low to middle 30s. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 323 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025 Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected throughout much of the long term period. Zonal flow will dominate aloft through around Tuesday which will help to keep colder temperatures to the north. A few days are even expected to see highs in the 50s to near 60. While dry weather is expected through Tuesday, enough moisture in the boundary layer will provide partly to mostly cloudy skies through that time. Then models generally all show a troughing system for mid to late next week, although the degree of the troughing still varies at this time. The late week system will be accompanied with first a warm front and then cold front and with it Gulf moisture and rain chances over a few days. The warm front will provide temperatures in the 40s to 50s Wednesday with the high that day likely to be during the overnight hours as the front moves through. There should be enough instability with it to produce some lightning embedded in the rain showers. The cold front is then expected Thursday with lows that night back below freezing.





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