…Increased Risk of River Rises and Localized Ice Jam Flooding
Friday into the Weekend…
Rain, heavy at times, is expected Friday morning. Many areas will
pick up between one third and two thirds of an inch of rain.
However, a band of locally heavier rainfall could result in some
isolated totals near or even over an inch.
The measured soil frost depth early Thursday morning was still 12
inches with no near surface thaw. Rainfall of that magnitude falling
on completely frozen or nearly completely frozen ground will result
in significant runoff and flooding of low lying and flood prone
areas.
While unseasonably mild temperatures this week will continue to
facilitate some melting and breaking up of the ice, significant
amounts of ice may remain in many rivers late this week. A storm
system is expected to bring rainfall to the region late Thursday
into Friday. While there is still uncertainty in where the heaviest
rain will fall, current indications are that many areas will see at
least a quarter to half inch of rain, with localized amounts
possibly exceeding one inch.
Due to the frozen ground, most of the rain should runoff into area
streams and creeks resulting in a significant increased in
streamflow. Even a modest increase in streamflow could break up and
dislodge river ice, leading to an increased risk of localized ice
jam flooding Friday and potentially continuing over the weekend.
As we are better able to refine the most likely location for heavy
rainfall Friday morning, a flood watch will likely be needed.
This outlook means that locally elevated water levels due to ice
jams are possible, but not yet certain. Persons living in areas
prone to experience ice jam flooding, particularly along the
Kankakee, Rock, and Fox Rivers, should closely monitor later
forecasts.
Warnings always on My Huge Radar!

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