…Heavy rain, severe weather, and flash flooding possible from the
Southern Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio valleys
through Thursday…
…Widespread precipitation, including heavy mountain snow, to return to
the Northwest, northern California, and the northern Rockies late this
week…
A strong, slow-moving low pressure system will move from the Southwest
across the central and southern Rockies tonight. Strong, southerly winds
ahead of the system will tap moist, unstable air — supporting widespread
showers and thunderstorms that will develop and spread east from the
southern and central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. A few strong to
severe storms, producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado, are
possible tonight from central Texas to far southern Oklahoma. In addition
to severe weather, areas of heavy rainfall and localized flooding are
possible as well from portions of northeastern Texas to western Arkansas.
Cold air on the backside of the system will support snow across parts of
the southern Rockies, with accumulations of up to a foot possible over the
higher elevations of the northern New Mexico ranges.
The system will begin to move more steadily to the east on Thursday,
bringing showers and storms and the threat for severe weather farther east
as well. Strong, isolated severe storms, producing damaging wind and
hail, will be possible from eastern Texas through the lower Mississippi
Valley. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding will extend farther
northeast from northeastern Texas into the lower Ohio Valley.
By late Friday, the storm will begin to weaken as it moves quickly into
the eastern U.S. Widespread precipitation is expected across the
eastern-third of the CONUS. However, the threat for severe weather will
likely be confined to the central and eastern Gulf Coast, with widespread
heavy rainfall not expected. Accumulating snowfall will be limited as
well. Lacking cold air, this storm is expected to produce only some minor
accumulations north of the low track as it moves into the Northeast on
Friday.
Dry conditions will continue across the western U.S. until late Thursday
when a frontal system begins to impact the Northwest. Widespread
precipitation, including heavy mountain snow, will begin to spread east
across the Northwest into the northern Rockies and south into northern
California, Thursday night. Precipitation will continue to spread farther
south and east on Friday, with heavy snow accumulations likely across
Olympics, and portions of the Cascades, and the northern Rockies.
Apart from some below-average temperatures behind a cold front sinking
south across the Northeast, temperatures will be well above normal across
the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. Daytime temperature topping out
in the lower 40s to upper 50s are expected to set new daily records across
portions of southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois.
Above-normal temperatures are then forecast to spread across the remainder
of the eastern U.S. on Friday. Following a chilly start, temperatures are
expected to moderate across the Southwest and the southern Rockies through
the latter half of the week. Elsewhere in the West, temperatures will
remain near seasonal to above-normal for many locations.
Pereira
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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