…Heavy rain, severe weather, and flash flooding possible from the
Southern Plains to to the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley…
…Heavy snow and snow squalls possible in the Great Lakes and Northeast
today…
…Atmospheric river to bring heavy rain and mountain snow to the Pacific
Northwest and northern California late this week into the weekend…
A strong but slow moving low pressure system will push across the
southern/central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Warm,
moist air from the Gulf will stream into the south-Central U.S. ahead of
the system and provide support for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall in expected over the southern Plains today and from eastern
Texas through the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas and areas that experience training/repeat
convection. Conditions will also be favorable for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms from Central Texas east through the Lower Mississippi
Valley today and Thursday. On the backside of the low pressure system,
colder air will allow for wintry weather over portions of the Four Corners
states, and locally heavy snow will be possible in the higher terrain of
northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. This low pressure system will
track northeast into the Midwest on Friday, and precipitation chances will
spread towards the East Coast and Northeast.
To the north, a couple of lows will swing across southern Canada and clip
the northern Great Lakes and Northeast, producing chances for wintry
weather. The first low will pass over the Northeast today, pushing a
potent cold front south across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Snow squalls
will be possible today for portions of the eastern Great Lakes, Northeast,
and even into the northern Mid-Atlantic as the front drops south. Snow
squalls may cause intense bursts of heavy snow with gusty winds, resulting
in periods of low visibility and dangerous driving conditions.
Accumulating snow is expected from the eastern Great Lakes through
interior New England, with the heaviest snow likely downwind of Lakes
Ontario and Erie and in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. These
regions can expect a brief break from wintry weather on Thursday as a warm
front lifts north, then more wintry weather will be possible on Friday as
the second low moves across the Great Lakes.
Mainly dry weather is expected in the West with high pressure dominating
the weather pattern through Thursday. On Friday, high pressure will be
shunted east as a low pressure system approaches the West Coast. This
system will aim a stream of Pacific moisture (atmospheric river) at the
coast, focusing initially on the Pacific Northwest on Friday then shifting
south into northern California on Saturday. Widespread heavy rain and
mountain snow are expected, and flooding concerns will be heightened along
the coast.
The weather pattern will favor well above normal temperatures through the
end of the work week for much of the Central and Eastern U.S., except for
the Northeast where below normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday after a cold front passes through. High temperatures are expected
to be 10 to 20+ degrees above normal, with the greatest anomalies over the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest where a handful of daily high
temperature records will be possible on Thursday. Below normal
temperatures will likely linger from southern California through the
Southwest through Thursday, then return to near normal on Friday.
Dolan
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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