HEADLINES
– Above average highs mostly in the 40s to low 50s through the weekend!
– Rain Thursday evening into Friday morning could exceed an inch. (Chart below.)
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A stretch of mild weather continues as the overall pattern undergoes a significant shift from the past few weeks. Surface analysis over the Eastern CONUS features high pressure along the Gulf coast with a progressive northern stream jet across the Great Lakes with multiple surface lows tracking north of the region. Indiana will be placed right in the middle of these two regimes over the next few days resulting in mainly dry, yet breezy and mild conditions. For today, an area of low pressure treks through eastern Ontario while pushing a weak, moisture starved cold front southward into Indiana later this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between the high to the south and lower pressure to the north will keep winds elevated through the day. Currently a 50 kt low level jet exists overhead and will be slowly weakening through the afternoon. The nocturnal inversion in place is preventing these strong winds from mixing down to the surface during the early morning hours. Mainly just gradient winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph expected through the morning. Surface heating later today will lead to increased mixing and steepening low level lapse rates which could help bring higher gusts to the surface. During that same time, the LLJ weakens, so expect max wind gusts 20-25 mph through the mid afternoon hours before winds significantly diminish tonight. Despite a frontal boundary approaching from the north, breezy conditions, a well mixed boundary layer, and ample sunshine will help surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s once again. Center of the surface high slides by to the south tonight, briefly causing the pressure gradient to collapse and winds to go calm in portions of Central Indiana. Good conditions for radiational cooling will likely lead to tonight being a few degrees cooler than the past few nights, in the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025 Thursday Through Friday. Southerly surface flow is expected to return Thursday morning ahead of the arrival of a rain producing system that is expected to impact central Indiana Thursday night into Friday. Cloud cover is expected to gradually increase through the day which will limit the solar heating, but as the southerly flow ramps up, advection of warmer air should still allow for another day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. The pattern then will begin to shift late Thursday into Friday as the aforementioned strong upper level low exits the Four Corners region and begins to track to the northeast. Models continue to have a solid handle on the overall synoptic pattern with details in the exact timing/strength of the low remaining uncertain. Confidence is high in a widespread moderate to locally heavy rain event beginning late Thursday through Friday with temperatures warm enough to keep rain as the only precipitation type. Total rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches look reasonable with the strong forcing collocated with widespread moisture advection. There remains some uncertainty as to the position of the dry slot which would bring isolated lower amounts along with a frontogenetically driven band along the TROWAL axis that currently looks to straddle the northwestern portions of the area. These rain amounts will lead to additional rises on area rivers and streams, especially across southern Indiana where the highest total rainfall is expected. River ensembles show at least a low threat for minor flooding along the lower White River with action stage likely along the White River south of Bloomington along with much of the East Fork White River. Saturday Through Tuesday. Cooler but still above normal temperatures are then expected for the weekend with a low end threat for a few snow showers on the backend of the Friday system. Dry weather is likely for much if not all of the weekend with only very low rain chances Sunday as another weak system passes through the Great Lakes. Another weak cold front looks likely towards the start of next week, but little to no forcing is expected along the front which should keep conditions dry. Surface flow then becomes northerly by Tuesday which will bring the coldest temperatures of the long term period with morning lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s. Looking beyond further into the work week the pattern looks to remain wetter than normal with additional precipitation likely.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Sunny. Wind gusting to 25 mph. High 46.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Low 29.
Thursday: Partly sunny morning. More clouds in the afternoon. Mid to late afternoon rain chance. High 48.
Thursday Night: Rainy. Low 41.
Friday: Periods of rain, mainly in the morning. High 54.
Friday Night: Mostly clouidy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 31.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 43.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 35.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 54.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 39.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 48.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 28.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 40.

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