HEADLINES
– Wind gusts to 30 mph this afternoon through Wednesday.
– Above average temps through the weekend.
– Rain Thursday night into Friday morning. Could be over an inch, especially Indy southward.
LONG RANGE
– Colder air returns next Tuesday.
– Maybe snow/wintry mix a week from Friday.
– Widspread snow unlikely.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A stretch of mild weather is expected through the week as the overall pattern undergoes a significant shift from the past few weeks. Surface analysis over the Eastern CONUS features high pressure along the Gulf coast with a progressive northern stream jet across the Great Lakes with multiple surface lows tracking north of the region. Indiana will be placed right in the middle of these two regimes over the next few days resulting in mainly dry, yet breezy and mild conditions. Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak, moisture starved front pushing southward through Indiana with mid to high clouds overhead. A tight surface pressure gradient and the presence of the front has kept west-southwesterly surface winds elevated overnight around 10- 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times. Winds and higher clouds have also kept lows from falling much overnight with most locations still above freezing at this hour. Expect lows to bottom out around freezing later this morning, well above what guidance suggests. While influence from high pressure keeps conditions dry, the tight pressure gradient and an increasing low level jet pushing in from the north today will keep conditions rather breezy. Short term guidance indicates a 35-50 kt low level jet, on the southwest side of a low in the northern Great Lakes, pushing into Indiana after 20z this afternoon. Ample surface heating and steep low level lapse rates will allow for higher gusts to mix down to the surface, so expect increasing gusts to or exceeding 30 mph during the later afternoon hours, persisting into the evening. If mixing ends up deeper than what guidance suggests, the possibility if there for max temperatures to exceed forecasted highs in the low to mid 40s. Keeping low temperatures tonight above guidance in the mid to potentially upper 30s as breezy conditions are expected to persist into the overnight hours. Winds will largely be elevated due to the tight gradient; however a 50 kt low level jet right above the surface may allow for wind gusts to 20-25 mph continue late into the night despite stable low level temperature profiles. Wednesday Through Friday. The warming trend will continue Wednesday into Thursday with persistent breezy conditions as surface pressure gradients remain tight with central Indiana between a broad ridge across the Central Plains and an exiting low pressure system across Southeast Canada. Highs are expected to climb into the mid to upper 40s for Wednesday with the potential for large portions of the forecast area to see low 50s for Thursday. The pattern then will begin to shift late Thursday into Friday as a strong upper level low exits the Four Corners region and begins to track to the northeast with a strong LLJ advecting additional warm and moist air into the lower Ohio Valley by Thursday night. Models continue to have a solid handle on the overall synoptic pattern with details in the exact timing/strength of the low remaining uncertain. Confidence is high in a widespread moderate to locally heavy rain event beginning late Thursday through Friday with temperatures warm enough to keep rain as the only precipitation type. Total rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches look reasonable with the strong forcing collocated with widespread moisture advection. Saturday Through Monday. Cooler but still above normal temperatures are then expected for the weekend with a low end threat for a few snow showers on the backend of the Friday system. Dry weather is likely for much if not all of the weekend with only very low rain chances Sunday as another weak system passes through the Great Lakes. Another weak cold front looks likely towards the start of next week, but little to no forcing is expected along the front which should keep conditions dry. Looking beyond further into the work week the pattern looks to remain wetter than normal with additional precipitation likely. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 626 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025 Impacts: - SW winds increase again after 20z this afternoon Discussion: VMC expected to persist through the TAF period, main aviation concern is gusty winds. Winds have relaxed overnight as a weak frontal boundary has pushed through; however expect winds to increase again during the early afternoon hours. Winds briefly become westerly from 260-280 deg during the morning hours then become southwesterly from 230-250 deg later this afternoon. An increasing low level jet in addition to steepening low level lapse rates will result in winds 12-17 kts with gusts 20-30 kts after 20z. Winds may remain elevated through the overnight hours tonight as well. No cig or vis concerns through the period.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Sunny. Getting breezy in the afternoon. High 41.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Wind gusting to 30 mph. Low 32.
Wednesday: Sunny. Wind gusts to 30 mph. High 41.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low 28.
Thursday: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Mid to late afternoon rain chance. High 46.
Thursday Night: Rainy. Low 38.
Friday: Periods of rain. High 51.
Friday Night: Periods of rain, maybe ending with a trace of snow. Low 25.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 38.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 32.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 50.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 30.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 42.

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