Via @NWSIndianapolis… The temperature just climbed to 33 degrees at Indianapolis, ending 6.75 days of sub-freezing conditions. The average temperature (for the 6 full days below 32*F) was 11.5 degrees. The city’s average temperature for the entire month of January 1977 was 10.2. Fun fact: This January 20-22, Indianapolis recorded three consecutive minimum temperatures at/below 0*F That’s only the 6th time since 1998, or a once every 4-5 year frequency.
A brief cool down tomorrow, then more mild weather expected for next week.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Much of the United States will be coming out of an extensive deep freeze this weekend and next week as a more progressive and milder weather pattern sets up over the country. Central Indiana has largely been below freezing for about a week straight and today will be the first day for many that temperatures finally break the 32 degree mark. For today, low pressure exists over the Hudson bay with a weak, moisture starved cold front extending southwestward into the Midwest. A 30-40 kt low level jet ahead of the front and increasing southerly winds are working to bring a more mild airmass northward into the region today. Strong mid and upper level zonal flow from the pacific will increase high level clouds through the day. Despite increasing clouds, "warm" air advection to result in highs reaching the mid 30s across the north and low 40s in South Central Indiana. The cold front to the west passes through the region later tonight, with a wind shift from southwest to westnorthwest and a slightly colder airmass. Cross sectional views of the atmospheric profile continue to indicate a lot of dry air in the low and mid levels, preventing precipitation from forming along this front. While a few snowflakes or flurries are possible across North Central Indiana later today and tonight, most areas should remain dry this weekend. Main impacts from this front will be falling temperatures back into the teens and 20s later tonight and increased cloud cover. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 312 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025 A relatively quiet and significantly milder stretch of weather is likely for the long term period, with minor exceptions. A more progressive weather pattern sets up for much of the country this next week as the polar jet retreats well to the north, keeping the bulk of the arctic air in Canada. An subtropical jet remains strong, yet quasi-zonal and should stay south of the Ohio Valley, leaving much of the region in an area of upper level convergence and sinking air. Broad surface high pressure will generally be in control across the southeastern and central CONUS, while weak systems traverse through the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. This will allow for mostly dry conditions over the weekend into mid week next week, and for temperatures to moderate significantly, with highs and lows much nearer to seasonal normals. The coolest day of the long term period is likely to be Sunday due to weak cold air advection behind the cold front, with highs in the mid 20s to to lower 30s. High pressure shifts south of the region for the first half of the new week with warm air advection kicking out the colder airmass in place allowing for temperatures to moderate into the 40s. Indiana will be sandwiched in the middle of high pressure to the south and low pressure across the northern CONUS, resulting in strong westerly flow as the low level pressure gradient tightens. Most of the energy and moisture with the northern stream systems will remain north of the region with high pressure keeping a much drier airmass in place. Deeper mixing and steeper low level lapse rates Monday will result in winds 10-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph Monday afternoon and highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. A similar pattern remains in place Tuesday and Wednesday with each day a few degrees warmer than the previous. A stronger area of low pressure, associated with the northern branch of the jet, moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wednesday into Thursday. While this system does swing a cold front through Wednesday night, the progressive pattern in place will prevent the "colder" air front sticking around long. A brief drop in temperatures expected Thursday; however a moderating trend quickly returns for the weekend. Cross sectional views and mid range guidance shows the potnetial for very light precipitation with the frontal passage Wednesday night. Chances look very low at this point, so will keep the forecast dry for now, but may have to add sprinkles or flurries in the coming days. The next opportunity for precipitation will come toward the end of the forecast period towards next Saturday, as a closed low, which will slowly drift through California and the Desert Southwest next week, begins to pull northeast toward the Great Lakes and be reabsorbed into a larger longwave trough shifting eastward into the central US. Guidance today has trended slower with this system bringing precipitation closer to Indiana Saturday morning rather than Friday. Will go ahead and lower PoPs Friday and increase them for Saturday based on latest Ensemble and deterministic trends. P- type is still a question; however the pattern supports more rain than frozen precipitation at this point.

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