…Elevated fire weather conditions continue in southern California,
precipitation expected to bring relief Saturday into Sunday…
…Below average temperatures continue in the South and East, gradual warm
up anticipated this weekend…
The forecast remains on track for a deep upper-low and associated frontal
system to descend through the western U.S. before closing off and stalling
over southern California this weekend. With the arrival of this system,
widespread light to moderate rain and mountain snows are expected to begin
late tonight focused over central/southern California and the Great Basin.
While much of the precipitation should bring much needed relief to the
southern California wildfires, these areas will also need monitored for
burn scar flash flooding and debris flows as rain showers with locally
enhanced rainfall rates enter the area tomorrow morning. Moreover, before
any precipitation arrives late tonight, elevated fire weather conditions
will persist across southern California today per the Storm Prediction
Center. As offshore low pressure strengthens beneath the closed upper-low,
the pressure gradient across the West will tighten, resulting in elevated
winds across much of the West on Saturday and Sunday.
East of the Rockies, low pressure tracking across the northern tier will
push a couple of cold fronts south across the Central U.S. while high
pressure builds over the Southeast. The first front will drop south across
the northern and central Plains today, ushering in a cooler airmass in its
wake across the Plains states. By Sunday, the front should approach the
Gulf Coast, leading to showers and thunderstorms in the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley as it interacts with a moist pre-frontal
airmass. To the north, a reinforcing cold front will drop into the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, likely leading to snow
showers and locally heavy lake effect snow across the northern tier and
Great Lakes regions.
Temperatures will remain below average today and Saturday for most of the
South and East. Some of the most notable departures from average will be
along the Gulf Coast to the Southeast where lows are forecast to be in the
20s and 30s and highs may only reach the 40s and lower 50s. Daytime highs
will likely help to melt snow cover from the recent historic winter storm,
but liquid water from melted snow may refreeze overnight when temperatures
drop below freezing. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
weekend, trending closer to normal by early next week. Below average
temperatures are also expected in the West underneath the upper low, and
highs could be 15-25 degrees below average in the Rockies over the
weekend.
Asherman/Dolan
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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