…Very Cold Winter temperatures continue from the Rockies to the East
Coast with a slow warm up anticipated heading into the weekend….
…Periods of lake-effect snow expected downwind of the Great Lakes with
some moderate accumulations possible…
…Multiple hazards will be possible over Southern California…
Well below average, very cold temperatures will continue for most of the
country from the Rockies east to the East Coast the next couple of days,
with some of the most notable departures from average over the Southeast.
Forecast highs Thursday generally range from the teens and 20s for the
northern Plains and Midwest, the 20s and 30s from the Rockies and central
Plains east through the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, and the upper 30s to
low 50s from the southern Plains east to the Southeast. Low temperatures
will be frigid across the Deep South with low temperatures in the 20s and
upper teens possible into Saturday morning.Temperatures may be as much as
20 degrees below average for Late January standards and some locations may
break daily record low temperatures across south Georgia to South Florida.
Although winds have come down compared to recent days, wind chills will
still be quite frigid and make temperatures feel around 10 degrees colder.
Some of the more adverse impacts from these temperatures will be for
portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast where snow and ice linger on
roads and keep travel hazardous after the historic winter storm. Morning
low temperatures look to drop below freezing through the weekend across
northern Florida into the Carolinas. Conditions will moderate some later
this weekend, especially for portions of the Plains and southwestern Gulf
Coast where warm westerly winds will bring temperatures up by 10-20
degrees and to average to above average levels.
A clipper system passing through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and
eastward into the Interior Northeast/Appalachians today will bring some
snow showers across the region. Some moderate accumulations are possible
with lake-effect snow bands for favorable downwind locations of the Great
Lakes. Locations that see the heaviest bands could near 3-6 inch snowfall
accumulations. Downwind areas of Lake Ontario near Watertown are under a
Lake Effect Snow Warning, and eastern shores of Lake Michigan have Winter
Storm Warnings and Advisories active.
Very gusty offshore Santa Ana winds will continue this afternoon for
Southern California, with gusts as high as 65 mph for some of the area
mountain ranges. These winds in combination with very low humidity and dry
antecedent conditions have prompted the Storm Prediction Center to
continue a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) today and an Elevated
Fire Weather Outlook for Friday as of the afternoon forecast package. Wind
gusts are expected to come down into Friday, reducing the fire risk,
though an elevated threat will still exist given dry humidity and
conditions. Ironically, the fires and relatively dry winter for Southern
California will lead to a possible flash flooding threat on Saturday
across the region as a cold front moves southward into the area. Some
isolated heavy rain, approaching half an inch per hour, may have a
non-zero risk of debris flows over burn scars Saturday into Sunday. The
Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on
Saturday to account for this risk in a very susceptible region recovering
and still dealing with wildfires.
Aside from the main story-lines, another notable talking point will be the
strong cold front moving across the West. The West has been mostly under a
ridging pattern over the past week or two, but troughing will push into
the region and push a relatively strong cold into the Southwest. By
Saturday, areas could be 15-20 degrees below average for high
temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s for the Pacific
Northwest and in the teens and 20s across the northern Plains and Rockies.
Mountain snows will accompany the frontal passage Friday night and
Saturday in the northern Rockies with some areas seeing a couple of inches
of snow.
Putnam/Wilder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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