HEADLINES
– There were a few flurries or light snow showers north this morning.
– Winds will gust to 20-30 MPH at times today.
– Warming trend, with rain likely Friday night late and early Saturday. Snow will mix in with the rain by Saturday morning with a possibility for very light accumulations.
– Bitterly cold air Sunday through the middle of next week with multiple nights of subzero lows likely.
– Single digit highs expected in most areas Monday and Tuesday.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 619 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 Once midlevel cloud clears the area, though some stratocu may rebuild, plenty of breaks of sun should appear, particularly this afternoon. This, along with modest warm advection early in the day should help highs to reach the low to mid 30s across the area. Modest boundary layer mixing will promote some gustiness to the winds today, with occasional gusts of 20-30 MPH expected. This will keep wind chill values in the mid teens to mid 20s today. Quiet weather will continue into tonight, with partly cloudy skies as mid and high cloud slowly ramp up ahead of the next frontal system. An increase in low level warm advection will also keep low temperatures nearer normal, in the low to mid 20s across the area. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 249 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 Upper level ridging expanding into the eastern part of the country on Friday will provide a brief thawing from the recent frigid conditions experienced. A cold front will bring primarily rain to the Ohio Valley Friday night and early Saturday before transitioning back to light snow before ending as colder air spills back into the region. The upper level pattern then reloads with an even deeper meridional trough encompassing all but the far western part of the country through the middle of next week with bitterly cold air and multiple nights with subzero temperatures returning. Friday through Saturday Night Clouds will linger Thursday night but should be in the process of clearing by Friday morning aided by the passage of a surface ridge followed by strengthening southerly flow and the onset of warm advection. Friday is easily set up to be the warmest day of the extended period as highs range from the mid 30s north to lower 40s south. A cold front will approach the region Friday night in advance of the aforementioned deep meridional upper level trough poised to expand across much of the country by the end of the late weekend through the first half of next week. Model data continues to favor a progressive moving frontal boundary that will impact the region late Friday night and Saturday with an axis of deep isentropic lift set to pivot across the Ohio Valley. Model soundings and low level thermals support rain as the main precipitation type Friday night although there is an exception over eastern counties where surface temps may fall back close to freezing Friday evening prior to precipitation onset overnight. This could enable snow to mix in initially before the boundary layer warms enough to transition to all rain. Another factor to consider is ground temps which are likely to lag surface temp rises Friday night by a few degrees. With the recent stretch of bitterly cold temperatures and the snowpack... could see a scenario where light icing occurs in some areas for a few hours Friday night even as temps rise into the mid 30s. Will continue to provide additional detail as we get into range with the short range guidance today into Friday. While rain remains the main precipitation type as the deepest lift and moisture passes Friday night...colder air will advect into the region with snow mixing in as early as predawn Saturday over the northern Wabash Valley. This will gradually expand southeast across central Indiana through the day as low level thermals tumble. Temperatures will drop all day Saturday into the mid and upper 20s by the evening. While deeper moisture will already be moving away from the region by Saturday morning...could see very light snow accumulations of a few tenths of an inch before precipitation fully ends Saturday evening. Sunday through the Middle of Next Week Yet another extended stretch of bitterly cold temperatures will commence for late weekend and continue for much of next week as the deep upper level trough settles over much of the country. An exceptionally strong surface high potentially greater than 1050mb will slide down the east side of the Rockies from western Canada and across the eastern half of the country through the middle of next week. Mid level heights will tumble in response with growing confidence in the coldest weather yet for this winter by Monday and Tuesday. High temps will revert back to the teens by early next week... with single digits likely Monday and Tuesday. The pattern supports multiple subzero nights early next week as well...although what is left of the snowpack after the rain Friday night and early Saturday will be a factor in just how low those temperatures will be able to go. Frigid conditions will persist into the latter part of next week until return flow develops and allows for moderation. Highs may recover back to near freezing by late next week but there are hints of the pattern recycling once again with another surge of arctic air late January into early February.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today:Mostly cloudy. High 34.
Tonight: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 22.
Friday: Mostly to partly sunny and not as cold! High 39.
Friday Night: Rain showers after midnight. Low 35.
Saturday: Morning rain, then a little snow as temps fall to around freezing. High 38 in the early morning. Temps fall into the 20s by afternoon..
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 15.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 20.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy and even colder. Low -3.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 6.
Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low -2.
Tuesday: Sunny. Coldest yet! High 8.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Low 3.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 25.





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