MORNING LOWS
-14 CRAWFORDSVILLE
-6 LAFAYETTE AND ANDERSON
-5 TERRE HAUTE
0 INDIANAPOLIS
3 MUNCIE
3 LIMA OH
HEADLINES
– Subzero temperatures and wind chills this morning
– Quick moving upper wave may produce light snow of a few tenths to around half an inch late Wednesday night and Thursday morning,
mainly along and northeast of Interstate 74, with localized minor impacts to the Thursday morning commute possible.
– Warm up to end the work week, with rain likely late Friday night and early Saturday. Snow will mix in with the rain by Saturday morning with a possibility for very light accumulations.
– Bitterly cold air is expected Sunday through the middle of next week with multiple nights of subzero lows likely.
MORNING MAP
Note the center of high pressure right over the coldest temps around Terre Haute and Lafayette this morning.
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025 The coldest night of the season thus far is in progress across central Indiana tonight, with temperatures as we approach 3 AM ranging from -9 to +7F across the area, though the bulk of stations are within 2-4 degrees either side of 0. Nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions are in place with light winds, clear skies, and antecedent snowpack, so temperatures will likely sink at least a few degrees lower by daybreak. Despite some modest low level warm advection on light southwesterly breezes and ample sunshine today, the blend appears too warm, as it is failing significantly to capture the intensity of the diurnal cooling ongoing. Most areas will likely struggle to get out of the teens today, aside from perhaps the southern tier of central Indiana. Have also trended below guidance on tonight`s lows as well for similar reasons, though lows in the upper single digits to low teens may be reached earlier in the night tonight, as the ongoing midlevel warm advection, along with increasing cloud cover, may result in temperatures steady or slowly rising late. A broad upper level wave in northwesterly flow aloft will move into the area late tonight and provide modest forcing for ascent and development of snow showers, which may be able to produce a light coating along and northeast of the I-74 corridor of a few tenths to around a half inch or so, with locally higher amounts, mainly in the far northeast. Moisture profiles within the DGZ are a bit within question, but even 0.01-0.03 of liquid would be able to produce light accumulations in what should be a modestly high SLR snow given the very cold profiles. In addition, the inconsistencies of the moisture profiles aloft result in a low but non-zero chance for some freezing drizzle to mix in as well, though will hold off on any mention of this for now. Nevertheless, even light snow could produce localized travel impacts for the Thursday morning commute, and will message this as necessary. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025 The broad upper trough across the eastern part of the country will be in the process of shifting away to the east on Thursday. An upper level low pushing into the southwest U S by late Thursday though will promote downstream ridging that will eventually progress east into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and provide a brief respite from the bitter cold Friday into the first part of the weekend. This will be temporary as the pattern reloads with an even deeper meridional trough encompassing all but the far western part of the country for early next week bringing a return of well below normal temps to the Ohio Valley. Thursday through Friday A quick moving upper wave will track across the region Thursday morning bringing flurries or light snow showers into the early afternoon focused especially across the northeast half of the forecast area. Model soundings show deeper moisture present through around 750-800mb Thursday morning but with much drier air aloft...there remains a non-zero threat for freezing drizzle in tandem with the light snow. Light accums less than a half inch are possible by Thursday afternoon along and northeast of I-74. Clouds will persist through Thursday night and perhaps even into Friday morning but the passage of a surface ridge followed by strengthening southerly flow and the onset of warm advection will enable skies to clear on Friday. Temps will rise into the 30s Thursday but Friday will be the warmest day in two weeks for central Indiana as highs range from the mid 30s north to lower 40s south. Friday Night through Saturday Night A cold front will approach the region Friday night in advance of the aforementioned deep meridional upper level trough poised to expand across much of the country by the end of the late weekend through the first half of next week. Ensemble data continues to favor a progressive moving frontal boundary that will impact the region Friday night and Saturday with an axis of deep isentropic lift set to pivot across the Ohio Valley. One change noted on the most recent model suite from Tuesday evening is that the front is moving into the region a bit faster than previous runs and subsequently enabling temperatures to fall within the boundary layer more quickly. While rain remains the main precipitation type as the deepest lift and moisture passes Friday night...colder air will advect into the region with snow mixing in as early as predawn Saturday over the northern Wabash Valley. This will gradually expand southeast across central Indiana through the day as low level thermals tumble. Temperatures will drop all day Saturday into the mid and upper 20s by the evening. While deeper moisture will already be moving away from the region by Saturday morning...cannot rule out light snow accumulations as the precip type transitions through the day. Sunday into Early Next Week Yet another extended stretch of bitterly cold temperatures will commence for late weekend and continue for much of next week as the deep upper level trough settles over much of the country. An exceptionally strong surface high potentially greater than 1050mb will slide down the east side of the Rockies from western Canada and across the eastern half of the country through the middle of next week. Mid level heights will tumble in response with growing confidence in the coldest weather yet for this winter by Monday and Tuesday. High temps will revert back to the teens by early next week... with single digits likely Monday and Tuesday. The pattern supports multiple subzero nights early next week as well...although what is left of the snowpack after the rain Friday night and early Saturday will be a factor in just how low those temperatures will be able to go. Bitterly cold air will persist into the latter part of next week until return flow develops and allows for moderation. Likely to see temperatures recover back briefly to near late January normals by the weekend of January 25-26...but there are hints of the pattern recycling once again with another surge of arctic air to wrap up the month into the first few days of February.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Sunny. Chills stay in the single digits all day. High 18.
Tonight: Partly cloudy evening. Snow showers overnight toward morning. Low of 11 in the late evening. Temps rise to around 20 overnight..
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Morning snow showers. A dusting is possible. High 34.
Thursday Night: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 21.
Friday: Mostly sunny and not as cold! High 39.
Friday Night: Rain showers after midnight. Low 35.
Saturday: Morning rain, then a little snow as temps fall to around freezing. High 39.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 14.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25.
Sunday Night: Clearing and even colder. Low 0.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 10.
Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low -3.
Tuesday: Sunny. Coldest yet! High 10.





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