TODAY’S MAP
Here’s the little clipper bringing an inch or less of snow to central and northern Indiana today. The wind could gust to 25 mph, causing some visibility issues in the snow. Little or accumulation in southern Indiana.
BITTERLY COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING
Behind the front: low temps around zero Wednesday morning, with chills from -5 to -15.
HEADLINES
– A little snow today, a lot of cold until Thursday afternoon.
– Rain(!) Friday night, mainly overnight into Saturday.
– Flurries Thursday and a little snow after the rain later Saturday, flurries Sunday.
– But no shovelers likely for the rest of the month.
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 259 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 Concerns for the short term portion of the forecast are twofold: 1) Quick hit of accumulating snow this morning into early afternoon. 2) Bitterly cold temperatures tonight. A compact upper level wave and reinforcing cold front will push through the area today, producing at least a few hour period of snowfall at sites across primarily the northern half to two thirds of the area. While global and high resolution guidance has trended a bit northward with this system in recent runs, and forecast profiles show a relatively brief period where the DGZ is saturated to provide snow, the combination of high snow-to-liquid ratios with at least a couple/few hundredths of liquid likely, especially across the northern half of the area, suggest a light and fluffy accumulating snowfall today of a few tenths to possibly near an inch. These systems are notorious for overperforming snowfall as it is, so confidence is fairly high in a dry, fluffy accumulating snowfall, which will begin near or shortly after daybreak in the northwest and progress across the region, coming to an end for the most part by early to mid afternoon. Some flurries or convective snow showers may linger on the tail end of the primary snow area as low level lapse rates steepen rapidly with cold frontal passage. Will continue SPS to highlight these expectations. These steep low level lapse rates will also promote gusty winds, especially late morning into the afternoon hours, with frequent 20- 30 MPH gusts likely. Highs today will struggle to get much above the teens across the northern half, though low to mid 20s may be reachable south in a quick hit of warm advection before the cold front pushes through. Strong surface high pressure will quickly build into the region this evening into tonight in the wake of the departing cold front, clearing skies and setting the stage for what may be the coldest night of the season thus far. Between the thin fresh coating of snow, the antecedent snowpack, light winds, and clear skies, ideal radiational cooling conditions will exist tonight, and have adjusted low temperatures down toward the low end of the guidance envelope, and expect lows to drop into the 0 to -5 range tonight. Apparent temperatures may briefly drop into advisory ranges of -10 or lower, but this will be highly dependent on just how much wind, if any, there is tonight, and will refrain from any headline at this point and highlight via all other available means. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 259 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 The general upper level flow regime across the country will remain favorable for colder than normal conditions to continue through much of the rest of the week as a long wave upper level trough remains anchored over the eastern part of the country. An upper level low pushing into the southwest U S by late Thursday though will promote downstream ridging that will eventually progress east into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and provide a respite from the bitter cold for a couple days Friday and Saturday. This will be temporary as the pattern reloads with a broader meridional trough encompassing all but the far western part of the country for early next week bringing a return of well below normal temps to the Ohio Valley. Wednesday through Friday Dry and cold conditions are expected through Wednesday night as the region resides on the back side of the departing deep upper level low currently aiding in the very cold temps currently over the region. Low level flow will begin to back by late Wednesday as a surface high passes by but Wednesday will be the coldest day of the period through the weekend with highs ranging from the mid teens north to the lower 20s south. A quick moving upper wave will track across the region Thursday bringing clouds and perhaps flurries with the deeper moisture displaced to the north of central Indiana. Model soundings hint at a non-zero threat for freezing drizzle Thursday morning as well with moisture confined to the boundary layer. Any precip should be scattered at best and very light focused especially across the northeast half of the forecast area. Clouds will persist through Thursday night and perhaps even into Friday morning but the passage of a surface ridge followed by strengthening southerly flow on Friday will enable skies to clear while also advecting warmer air into the region. Highs by Friday will feel downright balmy by recent standards through the first half of January with many locations experiencing their warmest temps since January 2 ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Friday Night through Saturday Night A cold front will approach the region Friday night in advance of the aforementioned deep meridional upper level trough poised to expand across much of the country by the end of the weekend. Ensemble data continues to pivot towards a progressive moving frontal boundary that will impact the region Friday night and Saturday. The lower levels will remain above freezing over much of the forecast area Friday with increasing confidence in rain as the precipitation type into Saturday morning as the deepest axis of isentropic lift moves through. Colder air will advect into the region on the back side of the system Saturday with critical thicknesses becoming favorable for a rain/snow mix as precip rates lighten. As temperatures fall though the 30s Saturday and eventually back below freezing Saturday night...lingering light precip will transition to all snow. Sunday into Early Next Week Winter returns for the tail end of the extended and for much of next week as the deep upper level trough settles over much of the country. A wave aloft traversing through the expanding longwave trough could bring scattered snow showers Sunday before high pressure takes over early next week with dry and extremely cold air as mid level heights tumble. That high pressure is increasingly likely to carry a strength at or above 1045mb as it slides down the east side of the Rockies from Canada into the Plains. High temps will revert back to the teens by early next week... possibly even struggling to get out of the single digits Monday and Tuesday. Confidence is growing in the potential for multiple subzero nights early next week...although what is left of the snowpack after the rain this weekend will be a factor in just how low those temperatures will be able to go. Bitterly cold air will persist into the latter part of next week until the strong high passes and return flow develops. Likely to see temperatures recover back to late January normals by the weekend of January 25-26...but there are hints of the pattern recycling once again with another surge of arctic air to wrap up the month. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 618 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 Impacts: - MVFR conditions in periods of light snow mid morning into early afternoon. IFR possible, primarily at LAF. - Wind gusts as high as 25KT mid morning into the afternoon. Discussion: A fast moving system will push through the area today, producing some light snow and low clouds from mid morning into the early afternoon hours, primarily across the northern half or so of the area. Will include PROB30 groups for further south sites where snow is less certain. Nonetheless, widespread MVFR ceilings with occasional MVFR visibilities are expected. Brief IFR cannot be ruled out but is too low probability for inclusion, except at LAF where IFR visibilities will be included in a TEMPO. Winds will strengthen, especially as the cold front passes later today, with winds veering from southwesterly to northwesterly and gusting as high as 25KT, before weakening in typical diurnal fashion late in the period to well below 10KT. Clear skies and light winds can be expected from early evening onward as strong Arctic high pressure builds into the area.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Light snow, mainly in the late morning and early afternoon. Around an inch accumulation. Wind gusting to around 25 mph may cause some visibility issues in the snow. High 20.
Tonight: Clearing and even colder. Chills below zero. Low 0.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 18.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 9.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a few flurries. High 32.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 20.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 38.
Friday Night: Rain showers after about 10pm. Low 35.
Saturday: Morning rain, then a little snow as temps fall to around freezing. High 38.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 14.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 24.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 0.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 11.

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