Indiana’s Weather For Saturday

YESTERDAY’S SNOW
Indy total was 3.7 inches. January total now 11.5 inches. The season-to-date total is 15.7 inches.

OTHER CITIES
5.5 Bloomington
5.5 Lebanon
5.3 Muncie (Ball State)
4.1 Tipton
3.5 Fishers
3.4 Avon
3.2 Frankfort
3.1 Columbus
3.0 Cicero

HEADLINES
Via @NWSIndianapolis… Another blast of Arctic air is expected this work week, with frigid temperatures and sub-zero wind chills at times through mid week. Flurries may linger this morning, and snow showers or freezing drizzle will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

TODAY’S MAP

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
539 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak clipper system Sunday/Sunday night with potential for mix of
  snow and freezing drizzle

- Much cooler temperatures return next week with rain or snow
  possible late week into the weekend as a cold front moves
  through the region

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 256 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

The widespread snowfall has shifted east into Ohio early this
morning but scattered snow showers and flurries linger over the
region with the upper trough axis overhead. 07Z temperatures were in
the mid 20s with a slight increase in westerly winds noted.

The impactful snow from Friday has ended...and the lingering snow
showers and flurries should gradually diminish as well with the
departure of the upper trough to our east later this morning.
Despite surface ridging passing through the Ohio Valley later
today...the primary focus then for much of the the rest of the short
term will be on cloud cover as shallow moisture remains trapped
beneath an inversion.

Scattered snow showers continue to track across the northeast half
of the forecast area early this morning in the wake of widespread
snow from earlier. These are being largely influenced by the upper
trough traversing through the region. As the trough axis shifts east
over the next few hours...the snow showers will follow suit leaving
just a few flurries across northern portions of central Indiana
through the first part of the morning.

Model soundings continue to advertise the development of a rather
sharp inversion within the near surface layer by mid morning and
extending into the afternoon with saturated conditions through about
900-925mb. While ceilings have risen early this morning as deeper
moisture shifts away to our east...expect lower stratus to settle
back in across much of the forecast area later this morning into the
afternoon hours. The arrival of the surface ridge for the afternoon
will limit low level wind flow and further complicate mixing out of
the stratus. Will carry mostly cloudy skies for much of the day as a
result.

As the ridge moves off to the east tonight and surface flow backs to
a southerly direction...should finally be able to scatter out the
lower stratus although mid level clouds will replace over the region
in advance of a cold front diving out of the upper Midwest by early
Sunday morning.

Temps...low level thermals support seasonably cool highs for today
topping out from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Continued chilly but
typical temps for mid January. Lows tonight will drop into the upper
teens and lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 256 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

Continue to be concerned about a low but non-zero potential for
freezing drizzle Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak low pressure
system drifts into the Great Lakes. Forecast profiles suggest some
steep low level lapse rates, which could result in convective snow
showers, but a dry profile aloft, which could also promote freezing
drizzle outside of any convective snow showers due to a lack of
cloud ice. Any amount of freezing drizzle can produce significant
impacts, so this will bear close monitoring this weekend.

Another Arctic blast will follow this system Sunday night into
Monday, with temperatures like to fall through the night and into
the daytime Monday. Multiple nights of single digit to perhaps
subzero lows appear likely Monday night through Wednesday night, and
blend numbers were massaged down a bit as yesterday`s addition to
the snowpack may have an impact, particularly on any nights where we
manage to clear out.

Multiple weak upper level waves may skirt the area at times this
week, particularly Monday night into early Tuesday, and Wednesday
afternoon into evening. These waves may provide just enough forcing
to produce some flurries or light snow showers, but model
disagreements preclude mentionable PoPs at this time. Given the weak
forcing and transient moisture availability, impactful snow does not
appear likely at this time.

A stronger system may impact the area late week into the weekend as
another cold front sweeps through the area, though major guidance
disagreements exist here as well. Will carry a chance of rain
changing to snow as the front passes.

This late week cold front may represent the most significant Arctic
airmass to drop into the region yet this season, though the
latitudinal extent of this intrusion depends upon the model one
interrogates. Nevertheless, below normal temperatures appear likely
to persist beyond the current forecast and into the week two period.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT