…Highly impactful winter storms will affect large portions of the Lower
48 late this week into this weekend…
…Heavy lake effect snows likely through Saturday downwind of all of the
Lakes, continuing Sunday downwind of Lake Ontario…
…A larger scale and high impact major winter storm to affect areas from
the Northern to Central Plains, Lower Missouri Valley, Mid Mississippi
Valley, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday,
Sunday and Monday…
…Below to much below average temperatures to stretch from the Northern
to Central Plains, eastward into the East, while temperatures remain above
average west of the Rockies to the West Coast and across the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast…
…Severe weather and heavy rain possible Sunday afternoon/night across
the Lower Mississippi Valley…
A broad mid to upper level vortex centered across eastern Canada is
supporting a cold weather pattern late this weekend going into the weekend
across large sections of the Lower 48 from the Northern to Central Plains,
eastward to the eastern U.S. While these colder than average temperatures
are not expected to set any records over the next few days, it will
continue to support ongoing heavy lake effect snows downwind of the Great
Lakes and into the upslope of the Central Appalachians, and support a
developing highly impactful winter storm that will affect areas from the
Northern to Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, Mid Mississippi
Valley, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday,
Sunday and Monday.
Heavy Lake effect snows are likely to continue into Saturday downwind of
all of the Great Lakes and into Sunday to the east and southeast of Lake
Ontario as this cold air streams across the relatively warm lake waters.
Lake effect snow warnings continue downwind of lake Erie and Ontario from
northeast Ohio, across far northwest Pennsylvania, and portions of western
and northwest New York State. Snow totals in these areas will likely be
in the 1 to 2 foot range, creating very hazardous and extremely difficult
driving conditions. While not as great, locally heavy snows also possible
across portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and the western
portions of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan downwind of lakes Superior and
Michigan. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are
currently in place across these areas for snowfall forecast of up to 4-6
inches. In addition, winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories
are in effect in the upslope regions of the Central Appalachians from
western Pennsylvania into West Virginia and far western Maryland for snow
totals greater than 6 inches.
Along the west coast, a storm system that has produced heavy lower
elevation rains and higher elevation snows Friday from Northern California
into the Pacific Northwest will continue to push inland tonight into
Saturday through the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies. This
system will be the primary driver for the expected widespread major winter
storm from the Northern to Central Plains, Lower Missouri Valley, Mid
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. Through Saturday, the primary area of
heavy snows will be across sections of north central to southeast Montana
into northwest South Dakota where winter storm warnings and winter weather
advisories are in place for snowfall totals of 4-6″+. By Saturday night
into Sunday, heavy snows and significant icing will develop across the
Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, Mid Mississippi Valley and
Ohio Valley. Snowfall totals of 8-12″+ possible from northeast Kansas,
far southeast Nebraska, across northern Missouri, south central Illinois,
southern Indiana, northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Across these
regions, the expected heavy snowfall may be the greatest in the past
decade for some regions. To the south of the forecast heavy snow axis,
significant icing is possible from southeast Kansas, across southern
Missouri, far southern Illinois, much of Kentucky, far northeast
Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia, with ice
accumulations of .10-25″+. Travel of all kinds will likely be very
difficult and extremely dangerous across both the expected heavy snow and
significant icing areas.
By late Sunday night into Monday, the heavy snow threat from this storm
will push into portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
Similar to areas farther to the west, heavy snowfall totals of 6-12″ are
possible across central to northern West Virginia, northern Virginia,
nearly all of Maryland, the District of Columbia, far southern
Pennsylvania and most of Delaware with very difficult and extremely
dangerous travel conditions also likely. Winter storm watches are
currently in effect from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley and will
likely be extended into the Mid-Atlantic. Across the Lower 48, there are
currently approximately 50 million people living in areas under some sort
of winter weather warning, advisory or watch.
In contrast to the widespread winter weather across much of the central to
eastern U.S., above average temperatures on tap for areas to the west of
the Rockies to the West Coast. Heavy snows still possible through the
Central to Northern Rockies, Wasatch of Utah and the Washington and Oregon
Cascades, but in general, high temperatures will be 5 to 10+ degrees above
average through this upcoming weekend from the Rockies westward to the
West Coast. Much above average temperatures also possible on Saturday
across much of Texas and Oklahoma and on Sunday from South and east Texas
into the Lower Arkansas, Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast
before arctic air surges south and east by late in the weekend and brings
much colder temperatures to these regions by Monday. This arctic front
will also bring the threat of a line of thunderstorms moving across the
Lower Mississippi Valley region Sunday afternoon/night with heavy rains,
isolated flash flooding and severe weather potential.
Oravec
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php