Shovel-able snow is likely Sunday into Monday. Scroll down for the detailed forecast. A smaller system pushes in Arctic air and dumps an inch or two tonight.
NWS Indianapolis technical discussion:
124 FXUS63 KIND 021044 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 544 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Partly Sunny Today, still cool. - Snow showers tonight, with accumulations. - Cold Temperatures arrive for the foreseeable future tonight. - A significant winter storm will likely effect the region Sunday- Monday, low confidence on precipitation types and snowfall totals && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 Synopsis: Surface analysis early this morning showed strong high pressure in place over AR/W TN and NRN MS. Strong, large and broad low pressure was found centered over Maine. These two systems were resulting in a cold northwest flow across Central Indiana. Aloft, deep and broad low pressure was found over northern Ontario. This low was allowing a cold northwest flow in place across much of the United States. GOES16 shows an area of stratocu exiting central Indiana to the east resulting in mostly clear skies across the forecast area. Temperatures were in the middle to upper 20s. High cloud was found over the plains states, over NB, IA and the Dakotas within the upstream flow aloft. Today - Quiet weather will be expected today with partial sunshine this morning leading to increasing clouds this afternoon. This will mainly be the result of the strong high pressure system to the south pushing a surface ridge axis across Indiana through the day. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column today, however some upper level saturation is noted later in the day. This will be due to the expected arrival of the mid and high clouds over the Central and northern plains, within the upstream flow aloft. Thus an increasing cloudiness type forecast is expected by this afternoon. Minimal temperature advection is expected today. Thus the highs in the upper 30s to around 40 will be expected. Tonight - Changeable weather is expected tonight. In the wake of the departing high pressure system a quick moving clipper system is expected to sweep across Indiana this evening and will exit overnight. Aloft, this system does not appear to have much support as the models just show a weak wave within the amplifying NW flow aloft. Within the lower levels, a cool front boundary provides good lower level convergence as the earlier high departs east. This frontal boundary, as it passes, will be the triggering onset for the arrival of much colder temperatures that will last for the foreseeable future. Temperatures above freezing will not arrive for at least the next 7 days, likely more. But I digress, back to tonight`s system. Forecast soundings tonight show good saturation within the mid and lower levels by 06Z at IND, including within the DGZ. Pwats for this system do not appear too large, with values only near 0.3-0.4. HRRR shows areas of snow showers pushing across Central Indiana between 03Z and 09Z, in conjunction with the frontal passage. Thus will include best pops during this time. Best forcing and moisture appears to be mainly north of I-70, thus highest pops and higher amounts should be found at those locations. However it does appear that most of the forecast area will be impacted. Snow falling late overnight and during the early morning hours may result in a slippery roads and surfaces if untreated during the Friday morning commute. Snow amounts should be less around 2 inches across northern parts of Central Indiana, including Kokomo, Anderson and Muncie. One inch amounts will be more likely along the I-70 corridor with lesser amounts south. As always with these systems, isolated higher amounts cannot be ruled out. With the onset of strong cold air advection in the wake of the front, expect lows in the lower 20s. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 Friday through Saturday night... Light snow should end just before dawn Friday with perhaps lingering flurries over northeastern counties, yet minor impacts are possible early Friday from slippery roads with readings slow to rebound through the low 20s. The remainder of the early-long term will feature dry and cold conditions as polar/arctic high pressure steadily builds in from the northwest. This will make for blustery conditions Friday with sustained winds around 15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph through much of the day...holding wind chills under 20 degrees for most areas. Under at least partial clearing Friday afternoon, temperatures should reach the mid-20s to low 30s. The first half of the weekend will exhibit fair weather as temperatures range from mainly the teens during overnights to 20s on Saturday. Wind chills mainly under 10 degrees Friday night should fall slightly below zero for several northern counties. Sunday through Monday... Confidence increasing in significant to potential major winter storm impacting central Indiana within Sunday to Monday timeframe. Cold, polar surface high pressure will be in place ahead of lee-side surface cyclogenesis into Oklahoma early Sunday. System is expected to then slowly track in an east-northeasterly direction, bringing accumulating snow and/or ice across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Confidence in storm track and associated precipitation type decreases through this 36-hr period...given location and timing of potential development of additional surface low pressure to south/east of original circulation. Lack such additional center of circulation in/near Kentucky would encourage mixed/ice precipitation further north into CWA...per original low curling in a more northeasterly trajectory around predominant center of arctic high pressure back over northern Plains. However the storm system`s overall detachment from the northern jet should favor at least a secondary low that would serve to pull entire trough in a more easterly direction...as favored slightly in latest set of ensembles. Careful attention will be paid to any continuation of such trends in upcoming updates. Trends exhibited by latest data also include better agreement between ensembles and operational solutions...albeit perhaps at the expense of overall run to run consistency with a slight northern trend in both the area of heavier precipitation and also potential for mixed/icy precipitation types. Supporting wave and surface low are also trending stronger in some guidance. If a broad and perhaps double-barrel trough were to stretch west-to-east, likely somewhere between the OH and TN Valleys...a very wide precipitation shield of snow could extent from Virginia back to the central Plains around the Sunday night timeframe. Locally, moderate to heavy precipitation is possible around the Sunday and into Sunday night timeframe along the warm frontal zone. Less certainty surrounds probably less-intense, yet potentially steady precipitation into the Monday timeframe...where any broad/multi-circulation surface trough set-up would likely be slower to drag east, while also possibly maintaining higher rates of accumulation. Perhaps this system`s greatest uncertainty still exists across our CWA, yet confidence is increasing in both snow being the primary precipitation type north of the I-70 corridor...and the potential for heavy mixed precipitation is increasing for at least our far southern zones and towards the Ohio Valley. Lower confidence in precipitation type and amounts is found for the broad area in between. However, the potential for heavy snow and/or mixed precipitation is greater along/south of the I-70 corridor than points north. And it is likely any part of central Indiana that sees ample mixed precip likely receives at least light to moderate accumulating snow before changeover. Also, forecast soundings indicate that mainly sleet may prevail within any area of mixed precipitation thanks to refreeze layer temperatures below -5 Celsius near the surface...which would agree with the strength of the antecedent cold air and ample diabatic cooling through the boundary layer. Expect precipitation to taper off as all snow by PM hours Monday with low temperatures probably around 10F Monday night and wind chill values around zero Monday night. We recommend partners and public to stay tuned for further updates late this week and into the weekend. Confidence in further details will increase as the supporting upper wave enters the Pacific Northwest and can begin to be resolved by upper air observations on Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday... Mainly dry yet very cold conditions should be the rule with temperatures ranging from single digits to hopefully around 20F, although highs in the teens may be a reality for anywhere with a moderately deep snow pack. Flurries and a few snow showers will be possible amid the overall cyclonic flow. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 543 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 Impacts: - VFR for through 030200Z. - MVFR returns after 030200Z Friday Discussion: High pressure moving through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will control Indiana`s weather today, providing mainly VFR conditions. This morning, GOES16 shows some VFR Cigs over the middle Mississippi River Valley that will push across the TAF sites today. Overall this will result in continued VFR conditions through the day. A quick moving Alberta Clipper system will sweep across Indiana tonight. Forecast soundings show deep saturation arriving with this feature, starting after 03Z and persisting through 08Z-09Z. Thus for now have included a period of snow after 0302000Z along with MVFR cigs and visibilities as these features pass. Some warmer air in place at HUF and BMG may result in less snow and a mix of of rain and snow, but MVFR conditions are expected nonetheless. MVFR cigs are expected to persist after the precipitation ends on Friday morning as strong cold air advection arrives in Central Indiana.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly cloudy. High 37.
Tonight: An inch or less of snow. Low 23.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 25.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low 13.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 25.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 18.
Sunday: Accumulating snow likely by afternoon. High 25.
Sunday Night: Accumulating snow. Final totals of 4-8 inches by Monday morning. Low 19.
**Accumulations generally north of I-70 should be 3-6 inches**
Monday: Morning snow possible south and east of Indy. Snow showers otherwise. High 26.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 12.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 23.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 7.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 17.






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