Was it really 60 earlier this week? Flurries today, an inch of snow Thursday Night, and possibly heavy snow Sunday and Monday morning.
Technical discussion via NWS Indianapolis:
071 FXUS63 KIND 011125 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 625 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and Cold Today; Flurries possible - Partly Cloudy and cold Tonight - Light snow accumulation are expected Thursday night into early Friday morning with impacts possible to the morning commute. - A significant Winter system will likely effect the Midwest and Ohio Valley late this weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Synopsis: Surface analysis early this morning showed strong low pressure in place over WNY and PA, providing cyclonic flow across much of the region. High pressure was found over Kansas and the western plains states. GOES16 showed extensive cloud cover across Indiana and points far upstream and west, to Minnesota, Iowa and eastern Kansas. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed a large, broad trough in place over the center of the United States, and a deeper part of this trough was found over the eastern Great Lakes, associated with the surface low. Temperatures across the area were in the mid to lower 30s. Today - Models suggest a quick moving, weak short wave within the troughy flow aloft, passing across Indiana. Meanwhile, lower level moisture is shown within the time height sections to linger through much of the day as cold air advection will be in play. 850MB temps are expected to drop to near -10C tonight. The mid level ridge axis does not look to arrive in Indiana today, adding further support for lingering lower levels clouds through the day. Forecast soundings fail to show any kind of deep moisture available. Thus with the lingering lower level moisture and weak forcing aloft, a stray flurry or some very light drizzle cannot be ruled out. Given our cloud cover and cold air advection highs will only reach the lower 30s. Tonight - Models suggest a quiet overnight. The mid level ridge axis is expected to push toward Indiana, while cyclonic flow across the area ends. This will be due to high pressure over the southern plains building east into the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys. Forecast soundings trend toward a dry column overnight and time heights show the lower level cloud deck gradually exiting. Thus will trend toward a becoming partly cloudy type forecast tonight. Cold air will remain in place, as 850mb temps remain around -8C, along with lighter winds. This will allow for overnight lows in the lower 20s. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Overview... The change of calendars will coincidentally also bring a change of weather regimes to most of the CONUS as elongated and amplified polar/arctic surface high pressure slowly builds southeastward into the central and eastern CONUS under what should be a split H500 flow through the middle/majority of the long term period. On the front end of the arriving polar air will be a weak clipper- type system progged to bring light accumulating snow to mainly the northern Midwest. A stronger and slower southern-stream storm system will bring the potential for heavy snow and other precipitation types around the late Sunday to Monday timeframe. Reinforcing arctic air is expected to arrive by the end of the long term to maintain sub-seasonal and very cold conditions across Indiana into mid-January. Thursday through Saturday night... Dry yet chilly conditions under thickening clouds Thursday will precede the first, weaker wave. The light snow`s onset should be earliest over the Upper Wabash Valley, yet suspect little/no impacts to the late day rush hour. A solid period of light to perhaps moderate snow is expected through evening hours, especially along/north of the I-70 corridor where forcing will be focused. The trough`s quick progression should lead to snow tapering off from west to east from late evening to pre-dawn hours. Around an inch of accumulation should be the rule for the region`s northern half...with probably a rather thin coating south of I-70. Marginally warm ground to start may melt off a small early portions of the snowfall...yet may also contribute to travel impacts on untreated surfaces after 00Z. Expect highs in the mid- to upper 30s Thursday and lows by late Thursday night ranging from mid-20s along the far south to upper teens north of the I-70 corridor, thanks in part to the thin blanket of fresh snow. Wind chills early Friday will drop into the single digits for central/northern zones. The remainder of the week will feature unseasonably cold conditions with modest temperature spreads ranging from lows in the teens to highs in the 20s. Sky cover should trend from scattered clouds to mostly clear conditions by Saturday...although this may promote a few colder spots dropping into the single digits early Saturday morning. Wind chills Friday night should drop to around zero for much of the region. Sunday through Tuesday... Main focus of the long term then turns to the potential for a significant winter storm within the early week. A strong short wave is expected to plunge from the Oregon coast to the Texas Panhandle by the Sunday timeframe. This should induce a broad and collaborated fetch of both Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the Midwest ahead of low pressure that will should track somewhere between the TN and OH Valleys. The arctic high aligned from Ontario down to the Carolinas will hold cold air at the surface for most/all of the episode, with widespread snow expected at the system`s onset into central Indiana by late Sunday. After this, considerable uncertainty still exists with latest ensemble members noting the surface low`s track and corresponding warm advection aloft should produce a swath of mixed precipitation, potentially heavy, somewhere between I-70 and southern Kentucky. Low confidence exists in where a parallel band of moderate to heavy snow may occur along/north of the area of greater mix/ice. Yet, appears a stronger system is more likely to bring heavier precip (of any type) farther north...and that what should be a more WSW- ENE track would not encourage a major progression of heavy mix/ice northward as the system crosses Indiana. Another wild card in the synoptic set-up is reinforcing arctic air beginning to simultaneously plunge down the Canadian High Plains...should this feature be quicker to plunge down into the CONUS, it could serve to twist the storm system and mixed precipitation types farther north...although this does not appear to be likely at this time. We encourage partners and the public to stay tuned for updates later this week as this likely impactful and potentially dangerous scenario unfolds for the Midwest. Please recognize a light/moderate outcome of precipitation is equally likely to a heavier possibility. Nevertheless the supporting upper wave`s detachment from the faster jet to the north will allow the system to track slowly east, increasing its time and possible duration of moderate to heavy precipitation rates. The end of the long term may see lingering snow showers through at least 1-2 periods around the Monday Night-Tuesday timeframe with the trough perhaps slow to depart eastward. Equally cold or colder conditions expected into the mid-week. Any areas with moderate or greater snow cover may fall to near zero at night and only rebound into the teens during the day. Subzero wind chills are possible through the late night/early morning hours. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 624 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings through 020000Z - Possible return to VFR after 020000Z - Flurries possible Discussion: Radar shows a few isolated sprinkles/flurries across Central Indiana. GOES16 continues to show extensive cloud cover across the region and the TAF sites. Cold air advection will lead to low, MVFR Clouds remaining across the TAF sites through the day. Time heights show saturated lower levels overnight and through the daylight hours today. Forecast soundings also show trapped stratocu beneath an inversion aloft. A weak upper disturbance passing aloft may result in a few light flurries, but any precipitation appears to be so light and low confidence that only a few VCSH mentions were used. As high pressure arrives across the area tonight and early on Thursday, a return to VFR is anticipated. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. &&
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
New Years Day: Mostly cloudy, with flurries and snow showers. Chills in the 20s. High 34.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low 25.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 36.
Thursday Night: Around an inch of snow. Low 22.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 27.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low 13.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 26.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 16.
Sunday: Accumulating snow likely by afternoon. High 27.
Sunday Night: Accumulating snow. Low 21.
Monday: Accumulating snow, mainly in the morning. Final totals of 4-7 inches. High 28.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 17.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 26.

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