…Coastal storm to bring quick moving round of rain and well-inland snow
to the Northeast tonight and New Year’s Day…
…Warming trend for the western U.S. while the northern/eastern U.S.
experiences colder temperatures through the end of the work week…
…Long duration lake effect snow event expected to begin unfolding
tomorrow downwind of the Great Lakes…
An area of low pressure located over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will
move into northern New York State tonight and weaken, while a secondary
low forms along the coast of New England. Rain with thunderstorms will
impact the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast later this
evening and well above average temperatures across the Northeast will keep
the precipitation type as rain for most locations except for northern New
England. However, colder temperatures will filter into the eastern U.S.
behind a trailing cold front which will allow for a changeover to snow for
interior portions of the Northeast on New Year’s Day as the surface low
deepens and slowly tracks northward into eastern Quebec. This storm will
mark the beginning of a pattern change for the lower 48 where colder air
will sink southward from central Canada into the northern Plains,
eventually sweeping eastward. From the northern to eastern U.S.,
temperatures will fall each day with values approaching average for New
England on Thursday while below average temperatures stretch from northern
Montana to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts. The colder air flowing
across the still relative warmth of the Great Lakes will set up a
favorable pattern for lake effect snow showers, starting tomorrow, which
should persist through the end of the week. Snowfall accumulations are
expected to be greatest for locations east of Lake Ontario and Erie
through Thursday evening with 6 to 12+ inches in the forecast, but
additional snow is likely into the weekend as well.
Across the West Coast, a series of Pacific fronts will track into northern
California, Oregon and Washington over the next couple of days and weaken
as they move inland. These systems will bring light, moderate and
occasionally heavy rain to the coast of northern California and Oregon
where 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Thursday evening. Lighter
rainfall is expected farther north into western Washington while
accumulating snow falls into the Cascade Range, with the highest snowfall
accumulations expected for the southern Oregon Cascades through Thursday
(6-18 inches, depending on elevation).
In addition, an increase in fire weather concerns for parts of southern
Texas, southwestern New Mexico and the Transverse Ranges of southern
California will exist today, with an Elevated Risk for of the spreading of
wildfires lingering in southern California for New Year’s Day. Gusty winds
and low relative humidities will contribute to the risk. Regarding
temperatures, many locations west of the Rockies will experience a warming
trend over the next few days as an upper ridge begins to build across the
Southwest.
Otto
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php