…Atmospheric river to produce heavy rain/snow across much of the
Northwest today…
…Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall concerns shift into parts
of the Central/Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast today…
…Much above average temperatures continue across the Central and Eastern
U.S.; cooler air moves into the Northwest on Monday…
…Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Southern High Plains
on Monday…
An active weather pattern will continue in the northwestern and
southeastern quadrants of the country today. Heavy rain associated with an
atmospheric river event will produce 1-2 inches over coastal areas of
Oregon and northern California, including upslope areas of the northern
Sierra Nevada. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (at least 15%) leading
to Flash Flooding are in effect for portions of southwest Oregon/northwest
California and the northern Sierra today. This wet pattern in the West
could produce rock, mud and land slides over vulnerable soils. Additional
heavy snow is likely over much of the Cascades, Northern/Central Rockies
and Sierra Nevada. Between 1-2 feet of snow (isolated higher) are expected
for parts of the Cascades and Rockies.
Storms associated with a severe weather outbreak that occurred across the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley yesterday will spread into
the southeastern U.S. today. Heavy rain and scattered to severe
thunderstorms, capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and
hail are possible from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the
Carolinas, where a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) is in
effect. Rain showers will also spread into the Northeast today as well,
while some light wintry precipitation develops over parts of the Lower
Peninsula of Michigan tonight.
Meanwhile, ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall along a narrow axis of low
level convergence may persist into this afternoon over south Florida.
There’s potential for this Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of Excessive
Rainfall to over perform given current conditions.
Much above average temperatures from the Central to Eastern thirds of the
country should persist until Tuesday, while an increasingly trough-y
pattern in the West will promote cooling temperatures beginning on Monday.
Widespread high minimum temperatures may be tied or broken across the
Northeast tonight ahead of a deepening upstream trough and southerly flow
along a strong surface warm front. Dry, windy and mild conditions in the
Southern High Plains will support a Critical Risk of Fire Weather on
Monday.
Kebede
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php