Via @NWSIndianapolis… Damp and unseasonably mild through this weekend w/occasional rain/showers. Showers will track from SW to NE today, with 4-6 hours of rainy conditions for most locations. A mainly dry Saturday will yield to rain, possibly heavy Saturday night, w/showers lingering Sunday.
NWS Indianapolis technical discussion:
162 FXUS63 KIND 271115 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 615 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief period of moderate rain this morning with widespread light rain through the day - Occasional southeasterly wind gusts to 30 mph this afternoon - Rainy conditions Saturday night into Sunday...further chances for rain Monday night-Tuesday - Cold and mostly dry start to the New Year Model soundings show the column will remain saturated through the overnight hours which gives high confidence in cloudy skies persisting through Saturday morning. The fog potential looks low with surface wind gusts remaining at or above 7-10kts through the night, but there may be pockets of very light rain/drizzle through Saturday morning at times as the cloud base remains below 1000ft. Temperatures will remain very mild during the overnight hours at just a few degrees below the record with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Saturday through Sunday Night... The short wave currently crossing the Oregon coastline is progged to plunge to the southern Plains by Saturday morning...which should promote modest surface cyclogenesis from the Lower Mississippi Valley up through Indiana through the remainder of the weekend... which will, perhaps more importantly, focus a conveyor of Gulf moisture northward through the TN Valley and at least briefly into central Indiana around the Saturday night timeframe. Dry conditions are expected Saturday, although southerly breezes will boost temperatures to near 60F over most areas for the first time in almost two weeks...and even bring a touch of humidity with dewpoints slowly gliding into the low 50s across southern zones. Clouds may break during morning hours, especially north/west of Indianapolis, yet not organized clearing is so far expected. Rain will arrive from south to north Saturday evening, with most rainfall expected to occur late Saturday night. The northern extent of what should be heavy rain over western KY/TN may reach the CWA`s farther southern portions...where confidence in 12-hr moderate rainfall is greatest. Ensembles are continuing to denote a stronger gradient to much lighter rainfall across the Upper Wabash Valley from this main slug of precipitation. The rain shield should morph to what could be a longer duration of lingering and mainly light rains through at least morning hours Sunday in a broad swath along the Wabash Valley courtesy of the occluding and departing circulation. By late Sunday most counties should have picked up 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rainfall, with less certainty for northwest areas. Temperatures should be not as warm Sunday in the 50-55F range, with no minimums nearing freezing. Monday through Thursday... The several days overseeing the transition from 2024 to 2025 will parallel with a change from above normal to near/below normal temperatures following another rather small system tracking eastward across Indiana Tuesday. After what should be a dry and hopefully partly sunny day Monday...another period of rain is expected, centered around AM hours Tuesday. A lack of better connection to Gulf moisture would imply widespread light rainfall amounts, although a briefly potent support vort max could bring a smaller area of moderate rainfall, which so far appears favored north of I- 70, although confidence in location of any rainfall maximum will be refined in future updates. Dry and colder conditions should be the rule for the last two days of the long term as a large polar air mass expands in a southeasterly direction across the CONUS. More typical mid-winter conditions may include a few flurries across the region, and probably sub-freezing maximum for at least parts of the CWA through the late week. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 37/23.






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