Via @NWSIndianapolis… Light rain is falling across much central Indiana, with widespread rain expected everywhere by 9 AM. Total rainfall will range from 0.1″ to 0.25″, with heaviest rain tapering off by mid-afternoon except for southern Indiana. Expect patchy fog tonight north of Indianapolis.
Technical discussion from the NWS:
530 FXUS63 KIND 251001 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 501 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread light rain expected today with amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch - Clouds and drizzle to persist into Thursday, especially across western Indiana - Warming trend through the weekend with additional rain likely Friday into Saturday && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 1250 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Today. A wet and dreary Christmas Day is expected across central Indiana today as rain continues to move northeastward with most areas seeing light rain by daybreak this morning. This rain is associated with a broad area of isentropic lift extending northeastward into the Lower Ohio Valley from a low pressure system situated across the Southern Plains. ACARs soundings over the last hour at IND show a gradual moistening of the low levels which should allow for precipitation onset towards 5AM with at least occasional light rain already falling near Bloomington and points to the southwest. The cloud deck will gradually continue tho lower through the morning hours as this saturation deepens. Total QPF still looks to be around a tenth of an inch with high confidence in rain being the only precipitation type as temperatures remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Rain chances will be highest through the late morning hours before the axis of steadier rain shifts to only southern Indiana towards the mid to late afternoon with light rain/drizzle to the north. With the very low ceilings and near calm winds today, there may be brief periods of mist/fog during breaks in the rain, but not expecting fog to be dense at this time. Tonight. There may be some residual fog/low clouds tonight across the northern portions of the forecast area while across the south some drier air will be filtering near the surface and limiting that threat. Expect across the entire forecast area that brief light rain will continue through much of the night as models continue to show very weak but broad ascent. Temperatures will continue to be near isothermal with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the north to the low to mid 40s in the south. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 1250 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Wednesday Night Through Saturday. Flow across the Midwest is expected to stagnate Thursday as the low pressure across Arkansas associated with the expected weather today dissipates. This will leave mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across much of the area along with periods of light rain/drizzle likely for much of Thursday. Focus then shifts to the next low pressure system as it exits the Four Corners region and begins to track northeastwards. Current model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the track of the surface low moving from Texas northeastward into western Missouri during the daytime hours Friday with a strengthening LLJ across the Middle Mississippi Valley Friday. Central Indiana is expected to sit on the nose of the jet by Friday afternoon with increasing confidence in a period of moderate to briefly heavy rain. Total QPF likely in the 0.25-0.75 inch range. There is likely to be a narrow dry slot with this system that may set up somewhere across central Indiana, but confidence in the placement of this is low. A secondary surge of moisture then quickly moves behind the initial low pressure system with the potential in heavier rain impacting portions of the Ohio Valley, but there is a lot more uncertainty as to where this axis of heavier rain looks to set up. Current ensemble guidance is hinting that the heavier axis will be south of the Ohio River but details remain quite uncertain. Where confidence is higher is that the some of the warmest temperatures of the month look likely for Saturday as highs climb into the upper 50s to low 60s as moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico advects into the area. Sunday Through Tuesday. Drier conditions look likely for late Sunday into Monday with some low rain chances being associated with the uncertainty in timing for the Saturday system along with a low end threat for another weak system Sunday night. Focus then shifts to the next system Monday into Tuesday which is likely to bring at least some additional precipitation, but a wide spread in model solutions keeps confidence low on anything more than chance POPs at any given point. Total QPF over the next week is generally expected to be in the 1-2 inch range which will bring some rises to the main stem rivers of southern Indiana. MMEFS river ensembles show that a higher end 3- 3.5 inch rain could bring some minor flooding to the lower White River Valley which will need to be monitored as successive rains begin to impact the area. The much above normal temperatures that will have been in place through the long term period will then turn closer to normal into New Year. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 500 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Impacts: - MVFR cigs becoming IFR after 10Z, brief LIFR conditions possible - Frequent MVFR and occasional IFR vsbys through the TAF period with rain and non-dense fog. Discussion: Cigs have bounced between MVFR and IFR across the terminals over the last couple of hours but are expected to consistently remain IFR through the rest of the morning. Brief LIFR cigs are possible at times this afternoon and evening. Widespread light rain should continue through the morning. Vsbys will generally remain MVFR but occasional IFR conditions are expected during heavier showers along with periods of non-dense fog/mist. The heaviest rain will end by 20Z for all but BMG with light rain/drizzle then continuing through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain less than 7 kts through the period with a predominately southeasterly direction. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...White LONG TERM...White AVIATION...White






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