Things to take off your Christmas List:
– Snow shovels
– Sun Glasses
MONDAY HEADLINES
– Light rain this evening
– Potential for fog tonight, especially north of Indianapolis
– Rain likely late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning
– Temperatures in the 50s to near 60 Friday-Sunday
National Weather Service Technical Discussion:
Occasional light rain is expected through the afternoon hours today as an upper level shortwave moves through the Great Lakes region. Model soundings show quite a bit of dry air below the cloud layer at around 4-5kft which will cause at least some evaporation of the falling light rain, but with fairly broad but weak lift across much of central Indiana, expect that this dry air won`t be sufficient to prevent at least some minor rain accumulations. The boundary layer will be quite shallow today (1500ft) but with a strong LLJ, expect to see at least occasional wind gusts to around 25 mph, especially across north central Indiana where the LLJ strength will be maximized. With widespread cloud cover, don`t expect much diurnal heating with afternoon highs only to around 40. Tonight. Skies will remain cloudy through the night tonight as the rain chances gradually wind down in the aftermath of the exiting low pressure system. Broad subsidence will work into the area tonight which will help to bring a gradual southern expansion of non-dense fog, especially after midnight. Winds are expected to drop to near calm for much of the night, but with the widespread cloud cover, widespread fog looks unlikely at this time. Will keep coverage of fog highest across the northern counties where confidence is highest in the light rain which will help to increase the near surface saturation. Tuesday Through Thursday. Patchy fog is likely to continue into early Tuesday before the pattern begins to shift as the next rain producing system moves eastward. Models continue to struggle on how to handle the development and track of this system as it exits Oklahoma and pushes eastward into Arkansas on Christmas Eve. Thus forecast confidence is fairly low with the better rain chances across the Tennessee Valley where there is good model agreement in forcing while towards Indiana the forcing is conditional on the development of a weaker secondary low which looks probable at this time. This secondary low looks more likely to impact central Indiana during late overnight hours Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s which gives high confidence in rain being the only precipitation type. Total QPF looks to be minimal with the weak overall forcing. Clouds are then expected to stick around through Thursday with temperatures remaining mild as the pattern becomes fairly stagnant with a disjointed jet stream across the CONUS. Friday Through Sunday. Focus then shifts to the next low pressure system as it exits the Four Corners region and begins to track northeastwards. Confidence in the progression of the system is low with a wide range in the model spread on the center of the upper level trough by Friday. A more northeasterly track vs northerly track would bring a return to widespread rain Friday while a more northerly track would keep chances low until the weekend when there is better agreement broader lift across the Ohio Valley. This lift is associated with stronger flow from the Gulf of Mexico which will also help bring some of the warmest temperatures of the month Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Looking further into next week confidence begins to increase in temperatures turning cooler by mid to late week along with occasional low precipitation chances.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Becoming cloudy. High 41.
Tonight: Showers in the evening. Areas of patchy fog overnight. Low 35.
Tuesday: Cloudy, with patchy fog. High 41.
Christmas Eve: Cloudy, with showers after midnight. Low 36.
Christmas Day: Cloudy, with scattered showers. High 42.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low 39.
Thursday: Partly sunny and warmer. High 51.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy evening, mostly cloudy overnight. Low 43.
Friday: Cloudy, with scattered showers. High 54.
Friday Night: Scattered showers. Low 48.
Saturday: Periods of rain. High 58.
Saturday Night: Rain, possible heavy. Low 47.
Sunday: Periods of rain. High 55.





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