HEADLINES
– Morning and midday snow; locally 2-3 inches possible near Muncie and Winchester.
– Wind gusts 25-35 mph developing this afternoon/evening.
– Periods of rain and a warming trend next week.
The heaviest snow will fall around Kokomo down through Anderson/Muncie through New Castle.
Any accumulating snow on grassy surfaces will be rinsed clean by rain Monday. Via @NWSIndianapolis… Periodic rain chances are expected for Indiana on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. There is only a very small chance of a brief period of snow in far northeast Indiana. Parts of eastern Ohio and Michigan could see a white Christmas, however.
Here’s computer modeling of where snow would be Christmas morning. Maybe a white spot or two on some surfaces in the northern half of Indiana, but nowhere near the “inch or more” level.
Via the NWS Indianapolis, here’s a technical discussion of the long term:
Low-level cyclonic flow eases some by early Saturday, possibly
offering the opportunity for some breaks in the stratus. Not very
convinced though given steep low-level lapse rates, residual
moisture (potentially augmented by trajectories off Lake Michigan),
and pronounced subsidence inversion atop the PBL. Thus, trended sky
cover more pessimistic for Saturday. Post-frontal cold advection
will hold temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and this should
be the dominant driver for temperatures regardless of stratus given
low sun angle at winter solstice. Thus, models are clustered fairly
well on temperatures.
Mean heights build quickly by Sunday, but ridge/trough placement
holds back stronger return flow until later in the day, with little
chance for more than modest warming and temperatures around 3-5
degrees below mid-late December climatology. Reversal of low-level
flow should bring an end to any residual stratus.
Periodic precipitation chances are expected next week with multi-
model ensemble QPF totals in the 0.50-0.75 inch range by the end of
the week. Round #1 will come Monday with a transient shortwave
trough interacting with modest moisture/PWAT anomalies. Models
differ in coverage/magnitude of rain near stationary front Tuesday
and warm advection-driven rain preceding the next shortwave trough
approaching Wednesday, which would be round #2. There are some
ensemble members showing over 1.00 inch QPF total for next week, and
this is plausible if the minority scenario of a further poleward
positioned IVT plume occurs for round #3 Friday (re: ECMWF/EPS
camp).
Predictability with regards to specific timing of more contiguous
rain areas and breaks between is limited at this time, especially
the latter half of the week. This is due to substantial high
latitude height anomalies, split flow, and generally weak u-wind
anomalies. So, some refinement to precipitation probabilities will
can be expected in subsequent forecasts. This is a pattern where
warm advection should be enough for positive 2-m temperature
anomalies (potentially +15 by Thursday-Friday) and generally all
rain, with little concern for wintry precipitation and associated
impacts.
This pattern may favor some fog potential, particularly Tuesday
north of stationary boundary with a favorable MSLP pattern, if
stratus breaks can occur. Once this becomes more clear we may need
to add it to the forecast.
Day 8-14: Medium-range models are out of phase with considerable
chaos in this period, but have a general signal for high-latitude
positive height anomalies and periodic forcing amid waves of
anomalous moisture. Thus, above normal temperatures (albeit probably
not substantially) and above normal precipitation are indicated.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Morning snow. Less than an inch. Wind gusting to 30 mph by afternoon, with some snow showers possible. High 36.
Tonight: Flurries or snow showers. Breezy. Low 24.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High 32.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 19.
Sunday: Sunny. High 34.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low 25.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, with rain by afternoon. High 41.
Monday Night: Rainy. Low 35.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a spotty shower possible. High 44.
Christmas Eve: Cloudy, with a spotty shower possible. Low 36.
Christmas Day: Cloudy, with scattered showers. High 47.
Wednesday Night: More shower chances. Low 40.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Continuing chance of showers. High 52.





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