WEDNESDAY HEADLINES
– Rain ending this morning, leading to a cloudy and cooler afternoon.
– Cooler than normal temperatures will return Thursday through the weekend.
– Light snow possible Thursday overnight into Friday. The snow could impact the Friday morning commute.
– Rain for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day
LONG TERM NWS INDIANAPOLIS DISCUSSION
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)…
Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024
Focus in the long term is on a couple of precipitation events. One
is a clipper system around Friday and the other is rain for
Christmas Eve/Christmas Day.
Thursday will be quiet ahead of an approaching upper trough and
surface low. Thursday night into Friday, the upper trough will move
in, and an area of low pressure will move through northern Indiana.
Good isentropic lift will accompany the system, and an upper jet
will provide additional forcing. Best moisture though will be
confined to near and north of the surface low.
Some model forecast soundings do show limited moisture in the ice
formation zone, so there is some concern for some freezing drizzle
with precipitation onset Thursday night. However, given the
uncertainty, will leave mention of that out for now.
Will go with likely PoPs across north and northeast portions of the
area Thursday night into Friday morning, with snow as the
precipitation type. As cold advection continues behind the system
Friday afternoon, additional scattered snow showers will be around.
Will keep chance PoPs going then.
Snowfall amounts have come up with the southward trend of the low,
but amounts will still be relatively light. Highest amounts near an
inch would be across the northeast forecast area with lighter
amounts to the southwest. The Friday morning commute could be
affected by this light snowfall.
Saturday through much of the day Monday look to be quiet and
cold with surface high pressure in control.
For Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, an upper trough will move into
the area. At the surface, an initial front will stall nearby, and a
surface wave will ride along it. Plentiful moisture will be brought
into the system from the south and southwest. Temperatures will be
warm enough for all rain.
Questions remain though on timing of forcing, where the front will
hang up, and the surface low tracks. These will have impacts on when
the highest PoPs will occur and where the heaviest rain will fall.
00Z GFS has 48 hour rainfall amounts over 2 inches in the south, but
the GEFS and other models place this axis south of the area. This
will be something to keep an eye on.
High temperatures will warm into the mid 40s by Christmas Day.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Rain and snow showers, mainly in the morning. High 42.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low 28.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High 39.
Thursday Night: Cloudy, with some light snow possible after midnight. Low 30.
Friday: Morning snow showers. Less than an inch. High 35.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 22.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High 31.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 19.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 31.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low 20.
Monday: Clouds increase. Afternoon rain showers, possibly mixed with snow. High 38.
Monday Night: Rain and snow showers. Low 32.
Christmas Eve: Scattered rain showers. High 41.
Christmas Eve Night: Scattered showers. Low 38.
Christmas Day: Scattered showers. High 48.





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