A little snow Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning, and a LOTTA cold air Black Friday into the weekend. Those are the headlines. First things first…a cold front brings central Indiana scattered showers today. Ahead of the front: the warmest temps of the week. Maybe for the rest of the year!
Dry and clearing weather is expected to arrive tonight. Cold air advection will be ongoing Tuesday after the cold front goes through this afternoon. So: back below average TFN. Further west, a series of shortwaves begin ejecting into the Plains Wednesday. Uncertainty still remains, however, regarding the upcoming system. A few scenarios remain on how it might evolve. These can generally be divided into two camps…one showing a more robust system with central Indiana firmly in the northern precipitation shield, and a second showing a less intense system passing quickly to our south leaving much of the area dry. Differences in guidance stem from how the models handle phasing of two distinct pieces of energy. Where phasing occurs, a more robust system develops and vice versa. Right now, there seems to be an even split within guidance on which scenario plays out. Precipitation type may be a bit tricky, as not much of a cold conveyor exists since deep low pressure may be located across southern Canada. Favorable thermal profiles for snow may derive mainly from diabatic and evaporative processes. Should the system be more subdued and further south, these effects may be limited allowing the primary precipitation type to be rain. In the event of a more robust system, increased warm advection preceding it may help offset these effects closer to the low center. Snow/accumulating snow is still possible, however, and impacts to Indiana therefore depend highly on the system`s strength and track. Here are two snowfall scenarios:
Much much colder weather arriving late in the week as the upper pattern becomes more amplified. This pattern may persist well into December as east coast troughing and northwesterly flow are favored. Such a pattern is also typically dry, though occasional light precipitation events may occur.
WEATHER TRIVIA
2024 has been a year of extremes:
Record earliest frost observed at some IN locations (9/8)
2nd-warmest 10/1-11/23 on record at Indy…..which included the greatest November snow in 50 years
Indy has tallied 195 days reaching 70F+, shattering the previous record (186, 2010)#INwx— NWS Indianapolis (@NWSIndianapolis) November 25, 2024
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Cloudy, with drizzle and scattered showers. High 58.
Tonight: Scattered evening showers, then partly cloudy. Low 31.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 44.
Tuesday Night: Clouds increase. Low 32.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers by afternoon. High 44.
Wednesday Night: Scattered showers. Rain and snow showers after midnight. Little or no accumulation. Low 34.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy morning, with a few rain/snow showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. High 41.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 23.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 32.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low 17.
Saturday: Clouds increase. COLD. High 31.
Saturday Night: Flurries or snow showers. Low 18.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and COLD. High 26.
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