…Winter storm brings significant heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions
to portions of Colorado and New Mexico Friday…
…Showers and thunderstorms will bring the threat of flash flooding to
the central/southern Plains Friday and Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday…
…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country heading
into the weekend…
A significant heavy snow event is underway over portions of the
central/southern Rockies and High Plains early Friday. A vigorous
upper-level trough plunging southward has ushered in colder air from the
north as a low pressure system over western Texas helps to funnel moist
air from the Gulf northwestward over the region. The compact nature of the
upper low will help to sustain very heavy snow rates of up to 1-2″/hr
leading to snowfall totals of 4-8 inches for much of eastern Colorado and
northeastern New Mexico, with locally higher totals of 12-18″ for the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa and 18-24″ over higher elevations of the
Front Range mountains/foothills. The combination of heavy snow rates and
gusty winds will lead to blizzard conditions for some locations and create
difficult to impossible travel conditions for the I-25 corridor and
eastern Plains, where numerous area roads are already closed. The most
intense snowfall should begin to taper off overnight Friday, with some
lighter snow possibly lingering into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile to the east, on the warm side of the system, the influx of Gulf
moisture and increased instability will to lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms producing very heavy rain over the next couple of days.
Storms currently over western Oklahoma and northwest Texas will continue
eastward along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front during the day
Friday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) covers much of
Oklahoma and central/northern Texas where locally heavy downpours over
saturated grounds may lead to some scattered instances of flash flooding.
Showers and storms with more moderate rainfall and an isolated flash
flooding threat are expected more broadly over the central/southern
Plains. The low pressure system will move northeastward across the central
Plains Saturday with an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms along
an arcing occluded/cold front over the Midwest and Mississippi Valley.
Areas of the Lower Tennessee/Mississippi Valley will see more intense
storms feeding off higher instability and moisture streaming northward
from Hurricane Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico bringing additional rounds
of very heavy rainfall. Localized totals of 3-5″ over saturated grounds
from recent rains will lead to threat for more scattered instances of
flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect here as
well. While moisture from Rafael will help to increase this heavy rainfall
threat, the storm itself is currently forecast by the National Hurricane
Center to remain well offshore over the Gulf of Mexico and dissipate.
A Pacific system will bring increasing precipitation chances to the
Pacific Northwest Friday/Saturday with moderate to heavy rainfall possible
and snow for high elevations of the local mountains. Precipitation chances
with lower elevation rain and high elevation snow will spread into the
northern Rockies on Saturday. Elsewhere, some widely scattered light
showers are possible head of cold fronts over the interior Northeast and
coastal Southeast Friday. Temperature-wise, most of the country will
continue to see above average conditions outside of the Four Corners
Region and central/southern Plains under the influence of the deep
upper-low. Forecast highs over the central/eastern U.S. Friday will range
from the 50s and low 60s for the northern Plains/Midwest/New England, 60s
across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley, 60s and 70s for the
Mid-Atlantic, and 70s and 80s for the Southeast/Gulf Coast. Gusty winds
and extremely dry conditions over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England have prompted Red Flag Warnings for the risk of
wildfires Friday. A cold front will bring cooler, more seasonable
temperatures to portions of the East Coast Saturday, with highs dropping
into the 40s and 50s for New England and the 50s and 60s in the
Mid-Atlantic. In the West, highs will be in the 50s and 60s for the
Northwest, Great Basin, and northern California with 70s into southern
California. As noted, temperatures will be much cooler and below average
in the Four Corners region as highs top out in the 40s and 50s, with 60s
and 70s into the Desert Southwest. Highs across the central/southern
Plains will be in the 30s and 40s Friday, warming a bit for the southern
High Plains into the 50s and 60s Saturday.
Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
