…Heavy snow expected to impact portions of Colorado and New Mexico while
heavy rain, severe weather, and windy conditions sweep across the Southern
Plains through the next couple of days…
…Heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to gradually diminish
by this evening…
…Hurricane Rafael is forecast to track more westward away from the
Florida Keys and into the Gulf Mexico through the next couple of days…
…Record warmth continues from the Mid-Atlantic down into the Southeast
and along the Gulf Coast…
The heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to diminish by this
evening as the associated disturbance pulls offshore of the Carolina
coastline. Until then, WPC has portions of Georgia and South Carolina in a
Slight Risk and a Marginal Risk in place from northern Florida to the
South/North Carolina border. Further south the tropical-storm-force winds
and squally downpours associated with rainbands from Hurricane Rafael have
greatly diminished now that Hurricane Rafael is tracking westward through
the Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, a vigorous upper-level trough plunging south will continue to
usher polar air into the region while gradually develops a low pressure
system over the southern High Plains. The compact and vigorous nature of
the upper low will help sustain snow in the general vicinity of
Central/Southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within
Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. This winter
storm has the potential for snow accumulations nearing a 1 foot for the
Front Range of Colorado and a few feet of heavy, wet snow for the higher
elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Numerous Winter
Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are in
effect for northeast Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. Freeze warnings are
in effect for southeast Arizona. This same system also poses a heavy rain
and severe weather threat for the adjacent Southern Plains by this evening
into Friday. The highest threat of heavy rain is forecast to be expanding
across western Texas toward southwestern Oklahoma tonight into Friday
morning when the low pressure system develops and intensifies over western
Texas as it tracks northward. A band of severe thunderstorms can also be
expected to sweep across western Texas ahead of a potent cold front. Much
of the central to southern High Plains will come under an increasing
threat of high winds as well especially by this evening into Friday
morning when the low pressure system deepens most rapidly. This could
result in gale force winds to accompany heavy snow on Friday across the
central High Plains in Colorado, while wind-swept rain impacts Oklahoma
and Kansas, and severe thunderstorms sweep east across Texas ahead of the
potent cold front. By Saturday morning, much of the rain should be
pushing east into the Arklatex region and into the Central Plains ahead of
the low pressure system. This will allow the Southern Plains to dry out.
However, heavy snow could linger across central Colorado into Saturday
morning depending on the strength of the low pressure system. This
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.
Much colder temperatures are expected across the West behind the low
pressure system and a cold front; with 30s and 40s across the valleys and
dipping into the single digits in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make
sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with lower moisture will
increase the risk for wildfires in the Southwest over the next few days.
Critical wildfire conditions persist across California where Red flag
warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior California.
The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for
southern California with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita
which will carry over for today. In contrast, record warm minimum
temperatures are forecast to continue from the Mid-Atlantic down into the
Southeast and along the Gulf Coast through the next couple of nights.
High temperatures are not quite reaching record levels but will remain
well above normal for these areas for early November.
Campbell/Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
