…Heavy rain threat emerging over the interior Southeast late today into
Thursday as tropical moisture associated with weak low over southeastern
Gulf of Mexico lifts northward…
…Increasing threat for heavy snow to impact the central to southern
Rockies and nearby High Plains through the next couple of days…
…Watching the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Hurricane Rafael
forecast to pass not far too to the west tonight…
…Record warmth expected for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
today…
Tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure circulation centered
over southeastern Gulf of Mexico is lifting north toward the Florida
Panhandle under a broad channel of southerly flow aloft. This weak low is
a system somewhat separate from Hurricane Rafael farther south in the
Caribbean Sea. The tropical moisture associated with the weak low is
forecast to be drawn northward today, leading to heavy rainfall tonight
into Thursday morning across the interior section of the Southeast. WPC
currently places a moderate risk of heavy rain across central Georgia into
portions of South Carolina for this upcoming heavy rain event.
Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea while heading northwest toward western Cuba. The latest forecast from
the National Hurricane Center has Rafael tracking just to the west of Key
West as category-2 hurricane tonight into Thursday morning. Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the western portion of the Florida Keys
where increasing winds with passing squally downpours associated with
rainbands from Rafael can be expected by tonight and may lead to isolated
flood concerns.
Meanwhile, a winter storm is brewing across the Southern Rockies. A
vigorous upper-level trough is plunging south ushering a surge of polar
air into the region while developing an area of snow over the Central
Rockies into the central High Plains. The snow is expected to expand in
coverage and pickup intensity through the day. The compact and vigorous
nature of this upper low will help sustain the snow in the general
vicinity of Central/Southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly
within Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If
the upper low deepens more than expected, the associated snow could linger
in the same area farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of
snow to fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while a few feet of wet
snow is possible farther south across the higher elevations near the
Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm
Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been issued
for much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.
Much colder temperatures are expected across the West behind the cold
front; with 30s and 40s across the valleys and dipping into the single
digits in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up.
Strong wind gusts along with lower moisture will increase the risk for
wildfires over the next few days. Critical wildfire conditions persist
across California where Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of
coastal and interior California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical
Fire Conditions highlighted for southern California today with an extreme
area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over into Thursday.
In contrast, high temperatures are forecast to challenge or break records
today across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England as well as
scattered locations in the South ahead of the weakening cold front moving
across the Mississippi Valley.
Campbell/Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
