…Heavy rain and severe weather threats shifting east toward the
Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley today…
…Mountain snow and wind will spread south from the Northern Rockies
today, reaching into much of the Central Rockies and Four Corners on
Wednesday into Thursday morning…
…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Tropical Storm Rafael forecast to become a hurricane as it
enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday…
…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will spread across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…
Energy traversing within the deep upper trough over the Southern Plains
will help shift the threats of heavy rain and severe weather today toward
the Mississippi Valley. As the low pressure
center tracks farther north across the upper Midwest today and then into
the Great Lakes by tonight, the heavy rain threat across the Mississippi
Valley will gradually lessen. The front is forecast to
become nearly stationary across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by
Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining in the
vicinity into Thursday morning. WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall and local flooding concerns from the
Arkansas/Mississippi border to western Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael (currently west of Jamaica) is forecast
to track across Cuba as a Hurricane on Wednesday and continue on a
northwestward track through the Gulf of Mexico while
slowly decreasing in strength. The Florida Keys will likely be closest to
the path of Rafael with increasing winds amid passing squally downpours
associated with rainbands from Rafael by later on
Wednesday into Thursday morning. Please refer to the National Hurricane
Center for the latest advisories on Rafael. Some moderate to heavy
rainfall well ahead of Rafael could move into the Southeast by Wednesday
night and continue into Thursday morning.
A strong upper level trough is expected to quickly progress through the
West which will push the cold front through the Rockies and Southwest.
Snow in the mountains along with strong winds will persist after the
frontal passage. There are winter weather advisories, winter storm
warnings, winter storm watches, wind advisories and high wind watches
scattered from Montana to New Mexico. As the front reaches the southern
Rockies by Wednesday and the Central and Southern Plains by Thursday
morning there will be a round of new snow to blanket much of the Four
Corners region. As arctic air plunges into the region temperatures will
fall to the 30s and 40s across the valleys and drop to the single digits
in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind
gusts along with lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires over
the next few days. Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of
coastal and interior California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical
Fire Conditions highlighted for southern California Wednesday with an
extreme area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita
which will carry over into Thursday.
Campbell/Kong/Wilder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
