…More heavy rain and severe weather focusing across eastern Oklahoma to
the Midwest today will weaken and gradually shift east toward the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…
…Next round of mountain snow and wind will quickly overspread into the
Pacific Northwest today and progress eastward to the Northern Rockies..
…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Tropical Storm Rafael as it enters the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday…
…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…
Heavy Rain and flash flooding is ongoing this Monday afternoon across most
of the south-central U.S. A flood watch is active across most of the
region, as well as flood warnings and flash flood warnings. A dynamic
upper jet pattern, high moisture content in the atmosphere, and a surface
front will allow for the possibility of widespread flooding from north
Texas to southern Michigan, with a targeted Moderate Excessive Rainfall
Outlook over east Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and southern Missouri. Turn
around, don’t drown. As the system progresses east the threat should
diminish, though areas from eastern Texas to southern Illinois will have
to watch for some isolated flash flooding potential as a line of storms
bring heavy rains on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the focus shifts toward the
Southeast as moisture streams ahead of Rafael. A Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall is active across areas in the Southeast where rainfall may be
maximized as a tropical environment interacts with a frontal boundary
nearby the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This forecast will continue
to be fine-tuned as the event approaches, so keep updated. Severe weather
will also be present in the short term. For the remainder of Monday, the
Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk from north Texas to southern
Missouri. Hazards include a few strong tornadoes, gusty winds, and some
hail. Additionally, Tuesday has a Marginal Risk for severe weather around
the central Gulf Coast and Midwest as a front moves through and may
produce a strong wind gust or a tornado or two. Wednesday, the approach of
Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will favor some waterspouts over the Florida
Keys.
Weather out West will turn active as another strong upper level trough
dips down. For today, a cold front and attendant low pressure system are
entering the Pacific Northwest, bringing rain to the coastlines and some
moderate snow accumulations in the Cascades. Strong winds will also
accompany the low, in addition to winter weather across the mountains, and
winter storm warnings and high wind warning are in effect. The front
should continue to push across the Rockies and Great Basin, with some
areas seeing multiple inches of snowfall from Montana southward to the
Four Corners region towards the end of the short term forecast on
Wednesday. Behind the strong front, temperatures will plunge as an Arctic
air mass invades the region. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s across the
valleys and lows may approach the single digits in the cool spots. Make
sure to bundle up.
From winter weather to tropics, residents along the Gulf Coast should pay
attention to Tropical Storm Rafael. Rafael is expected to strengthen into
a hurricane and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Continue
to stay weather aware and keep updated with the official information from
the National Hurricane Hurricane at nhc.noaa.gov.
Lastly, with all this active weather, the Northeast continues to remain
dry and quite warm for this time of the year. High temperatures will be in
the middle 70s nearing 80 by Wednesday across the urban corridor. The heat
will also extend southward along the east coast to the Gulf Coast, where
highs will be in the middle 80s; many stations near or eclipse daily
record high temperatures across the east coast in key summary.
Wilder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
