…More heavy rain and severe weather focusing across eastern Oklahoma to
the Midwest today will weaken and gradually shift east toward the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday…
…Next round of mountain snow and wind will quickly overspread into the
Pacific Northwest today, across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, and then
into the central Rockies by Tuesday night…
…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen which is forecast to
reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning…
…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…
The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will bring
another day of heavy rain and severe weather across the south-central
U.S., with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact eastern Oklahoma,
northwestern Arkansas, much of Missouri and into Illinois. In addition,
the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of severe thunderstorms centered around eastern Oklahoma and into
adjacent areas where damaging winds, large hail, as well as a few
tornadoes are mostly likely. More energy ejecting from the upper-level
trough currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West
will consolidate a low pressure system over the south-central Plains
today. This system is forecast to push a cold front farther eastward by
tonight, ending the heavy rain threat across Oklahoma but then shifting
the heavy rain and severe weather threats into the Arklatex region,
Mid-Mississippi Valley and across Midwest on Tuesday. As the low pressure
center tracks quickly northeastward across the Great Lakes Tuesday night,
the trailing cold front will weaken with time, leading to a lessening
threat of heavy rain and severe weather farther east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Nevertheless, moderate to locally heavy
rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected to reach into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
With another piece of energy associated the upper trough beginning to exit
the Southwest into the Plains today, mountain snow over central Colorado
will slowly taper off while mountain snow over New Mexico will linger into
this evening. A rather strong low pressure system from the Pacific Ocean
will quickly spread the next round of coastal rain into the Pacific
Northwest today followed by a good dose of mountain snow farther inland
along with windy conditions. The mountain snow will then reach into the
northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low pressure
system redevelops over the northern High Plains. The greatest chances
(>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in a 24-hour period is forecast over
the northern Cascades on Monday and northern Rockies on Tuesday. Be sure
to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout these
elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather
forecast. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the snow is forecast
to blanket the central Rockies into the central High Plains behind a polar
front.
Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi
River through early next week, besides rain chances throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over
the Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England
coastline, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western periphery. This
will support widespread above average high temperatures into the upper 60s
and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic early this
week, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When compared to early
November climatology, the Midwest and upper Ohio Valley is expected to
experience temperatures well above average. The anomalous warmth will
eventually spread to the East Coast by Election Day as showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front continue throughout the Midwest and
Mississippi Valley.
In the mean time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing
advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC 18) in the
southwestern Caribbean. This system has the potential to bring increasing
winds with the arrival of outer rainbands especially for the Florida Keys
by Wednesday morning as the cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane
strength by then. Please refer to the NHC for the latest advisory on PTC
18.
Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
