…Frequent rounds of heavy rain and severe weather expected across the
central and southern Plains throughout this weekend and into Monday…
…Mountain snow will spread from the Pacific Northwest into much of the
Intermountain West over the next couple of days…
…Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the
central to eastern U.S. with no rain in sight along the East Coast…
An upper-level trough digging into the western U.S. will be pushing
against a ridge of high pressure building across the eastern U.S. This
will result an amplifying weather pattern across the mainland U.S. through
this weekend, with the most vigorous battle zone occurring over the
south-central U.S. As mountain snow being ushered into the western U.S.
with the arrival of the upper trough, a large high pressure system will
quickly build across the northeastern quadrant of the country today. This
high pressure system will settle and expand across the eastern two-thirds
of the country this weekend, bringing cooler air into the Northeast. In
contrast, widespread above average temperatures are expected from the
Plains eastward with no rain in sight along the East Coast into the first
few days of November.
Attention will then focus across the mid-section of the country where a
rather significant heavy rain and severe weather event is currently
developing. As moist air from the Gulf of Mexico returns and streams
northward into the southern Plains behind the high pressure system, the
deepening upper-level trough moving into the western U.S. will spread more
mountain snow across the Intermountain West this weekend. Southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the returning Gulf
moisture and lift the moisture over a warm front across the central and
southern Plains. Heavy rain associated with organized thunderstorms are
currently erupting over the southern High Plains. The thunderstorms and
heavy rain will then expand northeastward into the central Plains through
the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain with locally higher amounts is
forecast across the south-central U.S., with the heaviest rainfall
expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many areas of the Lower 48,
this region is experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions. While
this heavy rain event will help alleviate the drought, the expected high
rainfall rates will bring an increasing threat of flash flooding. WPC
currently has a moderate risk of flash flooding in place from central
Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas and into southwestern Missouri from Sunday
into early Monday. Please stay abreast of the latest forecast updates on
this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to
southern Plains. This system will also spread some light to moderate rain
farther north across the northern Plains, and moderate to locally heavy
rain toward the upper Midwest on Sunday into early Monday.
Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php