…Increasing precipitation chances, including mountain snow, as well as
much cooler temperatures and gusty winds for the West to start the week…
…Much above average, record-tying/breaking warmth for portions of the
Plains and Midwest through midweek…
…Showers and thunderstorms for the Great Lakes Tuesday…
A deepening upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front will
continue southeastward across the Northwest today (Sunday), spreading
increasing precipitation chances, cooler temperatures, and gusty winds
throughout the West over the next couple of days. Showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in the Pacific Northwest today will
remain possible Sunday night into Monday before beginning to wane later
Monday evening. Lower elevation/valley rain and higher elevation mountain
snow will spread inland from the Northwest into the northern Rockies and
Great Basin Monday and the central Rockies by early Tuesday. The lower
elevation rains will mainly remain light to moderate, but some locally
heavy snowfall will be possible for the higher elevation mountains,
particularly from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on
Tuesday. Snowfall totals of 6-12″ will be possible. Higher elevations of
the Black Hills may also see some heavier snowfall totals of 4-8″. A
transition to some snow later Tuesday looks possible for areas of the High
Plains along the Front Range of the Rockies, but timing and any potential
accumulation remains uncertain at this time. Much cooler temperatures will
also follow behind the cold front as it pushes eastward through the West.
Highs on Monday will fall into the 50s for most of the Pacific Northwest,
northern Great Basin, and northern Rockies, with highs only reaching into
the 40s by Tuesday across the entire Great Basin and into the northern
Rockies. Highs will also fall into the 70s across the Southwest by Tuesday
after a hot Sunday that saw highs into the 90s for many locations. Gusty
winds are expected as well, especially across southern California, the
Southwest, and into the central/southern Rockies Monday, and the
central/southern Plains Monday into Tuesday. The Storm Prediction center
has noted an Elevated Risk of fire weather (level 1/3) across much of this
region Monday.
Meanwhile, much above average, record warmth for late October is expected
for the Plains and Midwest as a broad ridge of high pressure builds
northward ahead of the deep upper-level system in the West. Forecast highs
are in the 70s and 80s for the northern Plains and Midwest and 80s to low
90s for the central/southern Plains. Numerous, widespread
record-tying/breaking high temperatures will be possible. However, these
temperatures won’t last for long for more northern locations as the cold
front in the West quickly pushes out into the northern Plains Tuesday,
with highs behind the front dropping into the 50s. While not quite as
abnormal, temperatures will also warm after a cooler Sunday along the East
Coast, including some possible freezing temperatures for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday night. Highs Monday-Tuesday will rise into the 60s and
70s for the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas and the 50s and 60s in New England.
While much of the rest of the country will be dry outside of the West,
storm chances will begin to increase for the Great Lakes as moisture
increases with a warm front lifting northward through the region on
Tuesday. Some showers and thunderstorms are also possible along and behind
the cold front pushing through the northern Plains by later Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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