The weather map shows high pressure over the eastern half of the country this morning. It will encourage clear, calm conditions through the weekend.
The strong upper level ridge in place over the east coast is expected to continue to shift east today, but an overall blocking pattern aloft is expected to remain in place. As the upper low over the southwest continues to spin today and tonight, a new upper ridge develops over the plains. This will once again bringing sinking air, and more clear skies to central Indiana.
More quiet and warm weather will be expected on Sunday and Monday. Models suggest a second strong ridge to remain over the region on Sunday and Monday, keeping the strong surface high over the southeastern states and east coast. This will result in slightly
warmer southerly flow to Central Indiana, along with increasing temperatures.
Models suggest the upper low from the southwestern states will push northeast to Illinois on Tuesday as it weakens into just a short wave embedded within the flow aloft. This wave looks to pass across Indiana on Tuesday afternoon and evening, providing ample forcing dynamics. However moisture still remains a problem as gulf moisture fails to arrive. Thus small chances for rain in the afternoon and evening seem reasonable as these forcing features pass. Any rainfall amounts should be light.
I think there’s a bigger rain chance Wednesday night as a strong cold front and a secondary wave appear to pass across Central Indiana. Stronger forcing appears to accompany this front as compared to the previous system, and forecast soundings have trended towards more saturation than previous runs. Furthermore a very strong change in air mass is expected in the wake of the front. At
this time confidence for rain is highest on Wednesday, due to the better organized dynamics, although again, precipitation amounts
will be light.
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