…Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Gulf
Coast…
…Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Tropical Storm Milton will arrive
across the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing the threat of flash
flooding…
…Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the interior
Northeast Sunday with the threat for some large hail and damaging winds…
…Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the Southwest
through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week…
Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to
move northeastward towards the Gulf Coast of Florida, with a possible
landfall on Wednesday. However, potentially significant flooding impacts
are expected well ahead of the storm as anomalously moist tropical air and
instability increase south of a wavy frontal boundary draped across the
Florida Peninsula. There is now a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 3/4) Sunday over South Florida for a more concentrated corridor of
thunderstorms producing intense downpours with totals that could exceed
5″. This will bring a more significant risk of scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding in urban areas. A Slight Risk (level 2/4)
extends north along the Atlantic Coast and also west along the Gulf Coast
through the central Peninsula for additional scattered instances of flash
flooding. Another Slight Risk on Monday covers the Atlantic Coast of the
central Peninsula as well as the southwestern Gulf Coast and South Florida
as the threat for thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding continues. Follow the latest forecast from the NHC for updated
information on the expected track and potential impacts mid-week.
An upper-level wave/surface frontal system will pass through areas of the
interior Northeast including the Appalachians, Lower Great Lakes, and the
Upper Ohio Valley Sunday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sufficient instability ahead of the front as well as strong flow at the
low and mid-levels may lead to some more robust, severe thunderstorms. The
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted western New York and
Pennsylvania as well as eastern Ohio and the northern Panhandle of West
Virginia with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather mainly for the
threat of large hail and damaging winds. The SPC has also noted that gusty
winds and dry conditions behind a trailing cold front extending to the
southwest through the Midwest and into the central Plains will lead to an
Elevated Risk of fire weather. As the system continues eastward, showers
and thunderstorms will spread into the northern Mid-Atlantic late
Sunday/early Monday and into New England during the day Monday. Most of
the rest of the country will be without precipitation chances the next
couple of days expect the Pacific Northwest where rain chances will pick
up by later Monday ahead of a Pacific system.
A record-breaking late-season heat wave continues this weekend and into
early next week across central and southern California and the Desert
Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the region.
Forecast highs continue to soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of
the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California, with high
temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior portions of
the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying or record-breaking high
temperatures are expected to occur across the region going through Monday.
Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level
of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate
air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending greater time
outdoors. While not quite as hot, highs will trend above average again for
most of the rest of the Intermountain West as well, with highs in the 70s
and low 80s for the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into the mid-80s for
the central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will also spread
east out into the northern/central Plains early next week. In fact, by
Monday and Tuesday, some areas of the northern Plains are expected to see
high temperatures upwards of 20 degrees above average, reaching as high as
the upper 70s and low 80s. Much of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley will see unseasonably warm temperatures
well into the 80s on Sunday. A cold front passage will bring much cooler,
more seasonable temperatures to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Monday as
highs only top out in the 60s, with 70s into the Tennessee Valley and
Mid-South. Further south, hot temperatures will also continue for portions
of the southern Plains and Texas, with daily highs remaining in the upper
80s to mid-90s.
Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php