…Much needed rains possible from the Ohio Valley into the Central to
Southern Appalachians, Upper Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic…
…Rains from the developing tropical system in the western Caribbean may
begin to affect the Florida Keys and South Florida on Wednesday…
…Much above average temperatures continue across the West into the
Northern Plains and across the Gulf Coast into the Southeast…
The large scale mid to upper level flow across the Lower 48 will continue
to amplify over the next few days, comprised of a deepening upper trof
from the eastern portions of the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, a
building upper ridge across the interior West and the strengthening and
re-positioning of an upper ridge off the Southeast coast. This
amplification will be leading to impactful weather event over the next
several days across large portions of the U.S.
The initial impacts will be in the form of an expanding area of moderate
to heavy rainfall potential from the Mid-West into the Lower Lakes, Ohio
Valley, Upper Tennessee Valley, Central to Southern Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic. Much of these areas are currently experiencing severe to
exceptional drought conditions, with the expected 1 to 1.5 inch plus
rainfall amount over the next two days bringing some relief to these
drought conditions. With the dry conditions across these areas, river
flooding will be unlikely. However, there is still at least a marginal
risk of isolated flash flooding with the expected heavy rainfall amounts,
especially if they occur over urbanized regions.
More significant impacts to the above mentioned amplifying pattern will be
the weakening of the mid to upper level ridge across the Gulf coast as the
upper trof amplifies over the Lower Mississippi Valley and the upper ridge
rebuilds off the Southeast. This in turn will be creating a path in the
atmosphere, between the amplifying upper trof over the Lower Mississippi
Valley and the re-positioning upper ridge off the Southeast coast, for the
northwest movement of the developing tropical system over the northwest
Caribbean toward the Yucatan Straits Tuesday into early Wednesday, and
then a more north northeast track into the eastern Gulf Wednesday into
Thursday. While the current official track of this system from the
National Hurricane Center keeps the center of the storm well to the west
of the Florida Keys, the outer bands of precipitation and squally weather
on the east side of the storm may begin to affect the Florida Keys and
South Florida on Wednesday. Additional major impacts from this storm
likely across portions of Florida into the Southeast Thursday and Friday.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on
this system.
The amplifying upper ridge across the interior West will be supporting
widespread much above average temperatures over the next few days across
nearly all of the West and into the Northern Plains. High temperatures
across these regions are forecast to be as much as 10 to 20 degrees above
average. Above average temperatures also likely across the Gulf Coast and
into the Southeast. While temperatures are forecast to be much above
across these areas over the next few days, there are not expected to be
many record highs. However, more numerous record high morning
temperatures are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday morning along the
West coast and from portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Southeast and Florida.
Oravec
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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