…Threat of heavy rain and locally strong to severe thunderstorms will
slowly shift from the southern Plains this morning to the Ohio Valley,
central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes on Tuesday into early
Wednesday…
…Watching the western Caribbean Sea for tropical cyclone formation that
could bring strengthening winds and passing squally downpours into the
Florida Keys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning…
A low pressure wave consolidating over the southern Plains along a slow-
moving front is forecast to move northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi
Valley by tonight, then across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
Heavy showers and some severe thunderstorms this morning across the
southern Plains are expected to taper off as today progresses but the threat
of heavy rain and locally strong to severe thunderstorms will increase from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest in the mean time. By Tuesday,
the center of the low will pass through the Midwest toward the lower Great
Lakes, the threat of heavy rain and embedded strong thunderstorms will
then develop well ahead of the low across the Ohio Valley, mainly from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. By early Wednesday, many areas
across the lower Great Lakes and the interior East Coast will be
enshrouded by showers and embedded thunderstorms. These showers and
storms will extend farther southwest near/along the trailing front across
the interior Gulf Coast states. Showers and periods of rain will also
move across the lower Great Lakes into the central Appalachians and
upstate New York in association with another wave of low pressure near the
front.
The upper-level low behind the slow-moving front will slide across the
central Plains, allowing much of the western U.S. to remain dry along with
a warming trend for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, colder air will
remain entrenched across the Plains behind the front but 90s will be
common in the afternoon across the South and into the interior Southeast
today and Tuesday ahead of the front. The outer edge of a Pacific cyclone
centered over the Gulf of Alaska will only bring some light rain into
northwestern Washington State this morning. A weak frontal system will
only deliver some passing showers across the northern Plains today into
tonight.
Farther south into the tropics, the National Hurricane Center continues to
watch the western Caribbean Sea for potential tropical cyclone formation.
Computer models now appear to be in good agreement for the system to move
northwestward and reach the Yucatan Channel by the time the short-range
forecast period ends Wednesday morning. This means that the Florida Keys
could experience strengthening winds along with passing squally downpours
from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this system.
Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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