…Moderate to heavy rain threat associated with the remnants of Francine
slowly winds down across the interior South…
…A coastal storm could bring increasing wind and rain for the Carolinas
late Sunday into Monday…
…A strong low pressure system will bring unsettled weather with
high-elevation snow into the Sierra Nevada and Intermountain West
beginning on Sunday…
…Well above average temperatures expected for the central U.S. and
Northeast but well below average temperatures will surge into the West…
A persistent high pressure system that has effectively blocked the
northward progress of the tropical moisture associated with Francine will
continue to deliver fine weather for the northeastern quadrant of the
country for the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile,
the remnants of Francine will be sandwiched between the high pressure
system and a slow-moving front near the Gulf Coast, keeping a threat of
heavy rain and flash flooding into Sunday for much of Mississippi into
southwestern Alabama. Overall, the remaining moisture associated with
Francine will gradually be pushed farther south toward the central to
eastern Gulf Coast during the next couple days, with the threat of flash
flooding slowly decreasing over the interior South into Monday. The
eastern Gulf Coast region will remain under a marginal risk of flash
flooding through Monday.
Meanwhile, the same high pressure system that has blocked Francine’s
tropical moisture from reaching farther inland will become instrumental in
providing an environment for a coastal storm to form just off the coast of
the Carolinas during the next couple of days. Under this slow-moving high
pressure system, a broad fetch of northeasterly winds will be flowing over
the relatively warm Gulf Stream off the East Coast of the U.S. through the
next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the
possibility for a wave of low pressure currently forming on a stationary
front to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics as this system
begins to move generally north to northwestward toward land. This
scenario would bring an increasing threat of wind and rain for the
Carolinas late Sunday into Monday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty on the timing, intensity, and character of this system, so
please regularly check the latest updates on this system during the next
couple of days.
In the West, an unsettled weather pattern is in store as a strong
upper-level trough pushes a frontal system into the region. The system
will move across northern California, the Great Basin, and the northern
Rockies Sunday and Monday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this system, and there is a broad Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 1/4) in effect for portions of the northern Rockies and
Great Basin on Monday. This system will also usher in well below normal
temperatures, which will allow for wintry precipitation to fall at higher
elevations. A Winter Weather Advisory is already in effect for portions of
the Sierra Nevada where a few inches of snow may fall Sunday night and
Monday. Precipitation chances will also increase across the Southwest/Four
Corners region late this weekend into early next week as tropical moisture
streams north ahead of Tropical Storm Ileana, which is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics and dissipates in the Gulf of California by
Monday.
Temperatures for the remaining of this weekend will have a large range
across the United States with well above average temperatures in the
central U.S. and Northeast but well below average temperatures will be
surging into the West with the arrival of the strong upper trough. High
temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s for the Central U.S. and Northeast
through Monday, which is more than 15 degrees above average for some areas
in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. High temperatures in the West will be
near to slightly below average today, then drop to 15 to 25 degrees below
average in Oregon, California, and Nevada by Monday. Highs in the 50s will
be common in the Great Basin, and highs will likely only reach the 30s and
40s in the Sierra Nevada.
Kong/Dolan
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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