…Heavy rainfall from Francine will spread into the Mid-South, Tennessee
Valley, and Southeast today while the severe weather threat shifts east
into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle…
…A round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms with move
across the northern High Plains with high-elevation snow in the northern
Rockies…
…Elevated to critical fire weather concerns extend across much of the
High Plains and into portions of the central Great Basin…
Tropical Storm Francine continues to weaken and lift north early this
morning into southern Mississippi at the same time spreading gusty winds
and heavy rain across the region. The system is forecast to lose remaining
tropical characteristics later today as it pushes northward into the
Mid-South and connects with nearby frontal boundaries, while still
producing areas of locally heavy rain and chances for severe
thunderstorms. Tornadoes will be the main severe weather hazard through
tonight, potentially impacting parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle
along a slow-moving warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for this region. The greatest
threat for considerable flash flooding exists across parts of northern and
central Alabama, where a slow-moving line of showers and thunderstorms
capable of containing intense rainfall rates could linger for several
hours and produce localized totals up to 10 inches. Heavy rain is also
possible from northeast Arkansas through the Tennessee Valley and into the
Florida Panhandle today. Looking ahead to the start of the weekend,
showers and localized torrential downpours will remain possible throughout
much of the Southeast as lingering tropical moisture and stationary
frontal boundaries stay draped across the region. Residents are advised to
have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive across flooded
roadways.
A potent storm system is also impacting parts of the West and High Plains
as an area of low pressure organizes in eastern Montana today. Areas of
heavy rain and severe weather are possible across the state. Gusty winds
and large hail associated with thunderstorms are most likely to impact
eastern Montana and far western North Dakota through tonight, with heavy
rain a potential weather hazard in central/western Montana. Additionally,
cool temperatures in the high elevations of the northern Rockies could
lead to early-season mountain snowfall for western Montana and the greater
Yellowstone National Park area. The other aspect of this system will
correspond with strong southerly winds throughout the High Plains. Wind
gusts up to 50 mph are possible, which could result in a few power
outages. These strong winds will also increase the fire weather threat
across the region as dry vegetation and low relative humidity create a
ripe environment for erratic fire behavior. Red Flag Warnings and/or Wind
Advisories span from southern Utah to North Dakota.
Elsewhere, high pressure will keep much of the Great Lakes and Northeast
dry as high temperatures increased into the 80s through the beginning of
this weekend. Warm and dry weather will also be found throughout the
Desert Southwest and southern Plains, with high temperatures into the
mid-to-upper 90s. Conversely, below average temperatures in the wake of a
cold front will be felt across much of the West to end the week.
Snell
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php