…Hurricane Francine is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana later this
evening with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and torrential
rainfall…
…A round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow forecast
throughout the northern Rockies…
…Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the Great
Basin and portions of the High Plains…
Ample attention is on the central Gulf Coast today as Hurricane Francine
is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana this evening before spreading
impacts north to the Mid-South through the end of the week. Once the storm
pushes onshore south-central Louisiana tonight, life-threatening weather
conditions are expected to impact parts of the state, including the cites
of Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans. Hazardous weather conditions
include storm surge, strong winds, torrential rainfall, and a few
tornadoes. While the strongest winds and peak storm surge are expected to
occur closer to the center of Francine in south-central portions of
Louisiana, the heavy rain and tornado threats are forecast to span much
farther east along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, including southern
Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. In total, Francine is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts
to 12 inches for the central/eastern Gulf Coast through Thursday night.
This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. As
Francine pushes northward into the Mid-South and weakens by the end of the
week, additional heavy rain is possible and could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding. Additionally, a lingering frontal boundary
draped across the Florida Peninsula could lead to localized flash flooding
concerns over the next few days. Residents under hurricane-related
warnings should follow advice of local officials, including evacuation
orders, and never drive across flooded roadways.
A separate weather system will also impact the Nation through the end of
this week, with moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds impacting parts of
the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. This autumn storm will be
driven by a deep upper low crossing from the Northwest today before
closing-off and churning over the northern Rockies on Thursday. Most of
the impactful precipitation will be confined to the northern Rockies and
the High Plains on Montana. A few inches of rainfall could produce
flooding concerns throughout northwest Montana, prompting a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall both today and Thursday. Snow levels
dropping to around 7,000-8000 feet may also create hazardous winter-like
conditions for the high elevations of Montana Idaho, and northwest
Wyoming. The other aspect of this system will be associated with gusty
winds and increased fire weather concerns throughout the Great Basin and
High Plains. Strong winds combined with dry vegetation and low relative
humidity are forecast to be more pronounced over the Great Basin today and
increase the chances for erratic fire behavior. Additionally, elevated to
critical fire weather also exists across the High Plains and is most
apparent on Thursday as southerly winds increase in speed. Red Flag
Warnings and Fire Weather Watches have been issued throughout 10 states
between California and Nebraska. Outdoor burning is not recommended
throughout these regions and residents are reminded to not go near any
wildfires as they can spread quickly.
Otherwise, a large high pressure system over the Northeast will aid in
producing tranquil weather from the Great Lakes to much of the East. Well
above average temperatures are expected to overspread the north-central
U.S. before a warming trend is also noticeable across the southern Plains
by Friday. Highs across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great
Lakes are forecast to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s, while upper
90s eventually return to the western half of Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Snell
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
