…Heavy rain and flash flood potential to spread east from south-central
Texas to the Gulf states the next couple of days…
…Heat wave builds over the Southwest and parts of the West Coast this
week…
Much of our unsettled weather will focus over portions of south-central
Texas and the Gulf Coast states this week as a stationary front and
coastal low drive multiple days of widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the region. In the short term, scattered flash flooding could
continue across south-central Texas into the overnight hours as slow
moving thunderstorms persist, with several Flash Flood Warnings noted over
the Edwards Plateau. South-central Texas should dry out tomorrow morning
as a passing disturbance and associated inverted trough shift the main
axis of rainfall eastward toward southeast Texas and the central Gulf
Coast. Owing to a steady supply of Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing into
the front and surface trough, the current forecast calls for rainfall
amounts of 2-5″ (locally higher) along and near the central Gulf Coast
through Thursday, which could lead to locally impactful flash flooding
where higher rainfall totals materialize. Storms will also increase along
the southeastern Atlantic Coast by tomorrow, and daily thunderstorm
chances will continue for the Florida Peninsula.
Further north, an upper-level trough and associated surface cold front
will bring showers and thunderstorms to the northern Rockies today. Some
locally heavy downpours will be possible with an isolated threat of flash
flooding over central Idaho and southwestern Montana. Ahead of this
system, an upper-level ridge over the northern/central High Plains will
lead to another day of well above average, hot late-Summer temperatures,
particularly over the northern High Plains. Forecast highs are into the
90s, with some upper 90s possible for the western Dakotas. The approaching
system from the west will help to bring temperatures back down to average
tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid-80s. Showers and storms are
expected with the passage of the system, particularly over the central
High Plains. Storms chances will also spread into the Upper Midwest as the
system continues east Wednesday night.
Out attention turns to a building heatwave over the West by tomorrow. On
Wednesday, temperatures will soar into the low 100s over interior
California and into the 90s in the Pacific Northwest. While not as hot,
much above average temperatures are expected for coastal areas too, with
highs into the low 80s for some locations. Heat-related warnings and
advisories have been issued for the Desert Southwest and central/southern
California outside of the immediate coast given a heightened risk for
heat-related illness, especially for those without access to effective air
conditioning. Elsewhere, most of the eastern U.S. outside of the the South
will be dry with generally mild temperatures. Early Fall-like highs in the
70s are expected throughout New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas
through Thursday.
Asherman/Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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