…Flash flooding and severe weather threat will stretch from the Great
Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Central/Southern
Plains over the next couple of days…
…Dangerous heat anticipated across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley…
The slow-moving frontal system traversing the central United States today
will continue to push towards the East over the next couple of days.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread from the Great Lakes
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Central and Southern Plains.
Ample moisture and instability in the warm sector will support isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued
a broad Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for this area on
Friday and Saturday with an embedded Slight Risk (level 2/5) area over a
portions of the Central Plains on Friday. The main storm hazard will be
damaging winds, but large hail will also be possible in severe storms in
the Central Plains. In addition to severe thunderstorm hazards, heavy rain
may lead to localized instances of flash flooding, especially in areas
with repeat/training storms. Precipitation will spread towards the East
Coast and into the Southeast over the weekend as the system progresses.
Heat will remain the main weather story for much of the south-central U.S.
through at least this weekend. High temperatures near or above 100 degrees
will be common throughout the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. High temperatures and humidity will combine to produce dangerous
heat indices that could reach up to 112 degrees. Overnight lows won’t
provide much relief from the heat, lows are forecast to only drop to the
mid-to-upper 70s, which could break several daily records for warm lows.
This level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration, so it will be imperative to follow proper heat safety
and check on vulnerable individuals.
Elsewhere, some showers and storms will continue over New England as an
upper-level low churns over Nova Scotia. To the south, portions of Central
and South Florida will see scattered storm chances over the next couple of
days as a cold front slowly pushes through and stalls near the Florida
Keys. In the West, some thunderstorms will be possible with a shortwave
passing over portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies.
Monsoonal moisture and storm chances are set to return to the Southwest
and central Great Basin by Saturday, where isolated flash flooding is the
greatest concern. Forecast high temperatures are expected to generally be
around average along the East Coast, slightly below average in the Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest, above average in the northern/central Plains, and
below average in the Northwest.
Dolan/Snell
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
