…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause considerable Flash and Urban
Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across portions
of Florida and the Southeast Coast beginning today…
…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Upper
Midwest across the Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast on Monday
and Tuesday…
Tropical Storm Debby is currently forecast to strengthen while it tracks
along Florida’s Gulf Coast today. Debby may intensify into a Hurricane
Monday morning before making landfall near Florida’s Big Bend region,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life threatening storm-surge
inundation is possible along portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast from Aripeka
to Indian Pass. Strong winds will likely cause significant damage to
unprotected infrastructure along the storm’s path. There’s a potential for
isolated tornadoes across western and northern portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Monday, which is consistent with the Storm Prediction
Center’s convective outlooks, which depict Slight Risks (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms for those days. There is a Moderate Risk (at least
40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding across portions of
northwestern Florida today where the bulk of Debby’s precip shield will
cause impacts. Debbie is forecast to slow and cause considerable to
historic Flash, Urban and river Flooding across portions of northern
Florida through southeastern Georgia and into coastal South Carolina on
Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of coastal
Georgia and South Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov
Elsewhere, a low pressure system, emerging from the Northern High Plains,
will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northern
Plains tonight before spreading storms into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes
and interior Northeast on Monday. There’s a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall as well as a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday.
Downstream of this, the attendant stationary front draped across the
interior Northeast will be the focus for more severe storms from Lake Erie
to New England where another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in
effect.
High temperatures will be below average across the northern tier states
this week in response to unsettled weather associated with the
aforementioned storms in the Northern Plains. Temperatures in the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley will be above
average as southerly flow persists out ahead of the descending cold front
to the north. Numerous warm overnight lows may tie or break existing
records in the Desert Southwest over the next couple of nights. Monsoonal
rain continues over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region this
week with isolated Flash Flooding possible over vulnerable surfaces
including burn scars and slot canyons.
Kebede
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php