…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast on Sunday and Monday…
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic, southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast, and
southwest tip of Florida on Saturday evening…
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northeast Coast to
Southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday evening…
…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of the Pacific Northwest,
Great Basin, Southeastern California, and the Southwest, and Heat
Advisories over parts of the Northern Plains, Northern Rockies, and the
Gulf Coast…
…Tropical Depression Four, which is forecast to become Tropical Storm
Debby, will bring hazardous rainfall, strong winds, and life-threatening
storm surge inundation to portions of Florida on Sunday evening into
Monday…
A weak front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and then
Westward into the Southern Plains will slowly move eastward over parts of
the Northeast Coast and will be quasi-stationary over the southern and
western parts of the area before dissipating by Monday. The boundary will
aid in triggering showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast Coast to the Southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast Coast to Southern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic and a second area over parts
of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic and a second area over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Moreover, heavy rain associated with Tropical Depression Four, which is
forecast to become Tropical Storm Debby, will develop over parts of the
southwestern parts of the Florida peninsula. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the southwestern
parts of the Florida peninsula through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
A second front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains
and then to the Northern Rockies will go south and eastward to the
Northeast to Ohio Valley and then to the Central Plains by Monday. The
front will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there
is a threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of central Minnesota
and northeastern South Dakota.
As the front moves eastward and southward, the system will create showers
and thunderstorms from parts of the Northeast to the Midwest and into the
Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday. Furthermore, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday
and from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Monday.
Meanwhile, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain Region to
the Southwest will produce above-average temperatures, spawning Excessive
Heat Warnings over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain
Region, Great Basin, Southeastern California, and the Southwest. Another
day of excessive heat is expected on Saturday for the interior section of
the Northwest, with areas of major to locally extreme HeatRisk before the
heat gets less intense next week. The focus of excessive heat will shift
to southern California and the Desert Southwest this weekend, where it
will then persist through the first half of next week. The prolonged
nature of the heat will increase the risk of heat-related illness. The
developing high-pressure center over the Intermountain West will maintain
fire weather concerns across the region as winds increase and monsoonal
moisture brings the threat of lightning and new potential wildfires.
Moreover, a heatwave is expected to impact the Plains during the first
half of next week as Triple-digit high temperatures are expected to spread
southward down the Plains this weekend and into early next week ahead of a
cold front. Heat indices could exceed 105 degrees at the hottest
locations.
Further, increasing heat and humidity will develop from the Mid-South to
the Gulf Coast for next week. The combination of high temperatures
increasing into the lower 100s along with high humidity will result in
major to extreme HeatRisk. The heat and high humidity will expand across
much of the Mid-South and down along the Gulf Coast through much of next
week.
Moreover, what is forecast to become Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to
move northward over the Gulf of Mexico, moving to the Apalachee Bay area
by early Monday morning and into southern Georgia by Monday evening. The
storm will produce heavy rain over the Apalachee Bay area on Sunday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may
flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.
Likewise, on Monday, what is forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby will
continue to produce heavy rain over parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall on
Monday. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
